ETH's Reduced Trading Volume Hides Danger
Currently, ETH seems to be nailed at the ghost gate of $2445, with the 5-minute chart forming a straight line, and the BOLL bands narrowing to a level rarely seen in a decade. I've seen this suffocating market multiple times—it's either a massive surge or a bloodbath, with no middle ground.
Three Major Anomalous Signals Sound the Alarm
1. Fatal Injury from Collapsing Trading Volume
The actual trading volume is only $7.45 million, less than half of the 9-day average. The latest data from Coinbase shows that institutional spot trading volume has plummeted by 42% compared to the previous period, with large funds collectively playing dead being the essence.
2. MACD's Deadly Kiss
It seems like a golden cross is maintained, but the red bars have been shrinking for three consecutive hours. Even worse, a top divergence has appeared on the 4-hour level—prices are flat, but the MACD highs are declining, which is a textbook-level warning of a trend reversal.
3. Double Blow from News
U.S. PCE data exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve officials stated, "It is unlikely to lower interest rates this year."
The discount rate for Grayscale's ETH Trust has widened to -12.7%, marking the worst record in three months.
Macroeconomic headwinds + capital outflows form a combination punch.
As a trader who has experienced multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, it is accurate to say that there are only two outcomes after this pattern:
Scenario A (30% probability):
If the ARK fund suddenly sweeps the market after the U.S. stock market opens, breaking through $2450 with volume, then the short-stop losses will propel a rapid rise to $2470.
Scenario B (70% probability):
Falling below the $2430 support will trigger an on-chain liquidation storm (according to Glassnode data, $120 million in leveraged long positions are concentrated here), with a waterfall targeting the $2400 round number.
