We’re seeing several consecutive 4-hour candles, and that kind of setup can be risky. The market could go either way with equal probability — we might get a sharp move up, trapping the majority of short sellers (since most are short right now), or we could see a quick price dump to shake out late long entries, which often get lured in right before a real move up.
Bullish Case:
A lot of traders are short, based on funding rates. There’s plenty of liquidity sitting above current levels, so a move to take out highs would make sense. I mentioned in my earlier update — we’ve got a series of trade deals expected before July 4th (so the news flow is mostly positive), and the Fed just hinted at loosening the SLR rule for big banks.
Bearish Case:
There are two fresh CME futures gaps — at $105,700 and $103,300. Also, price has been climbing without any proper pullbacks, which means there's still uncollected long liquidity below.
Conclusion?
Shorting here is not a good idea. But opening a long position only makes sense if the market gives you a good setup.
As for ETH — entering at the current levels isn’t smart, especially with the risk of a BTC correction (dominance is high). It’s risky. A dip to grab nearby liquidity (below $2,400) might justify it though. Somewhere around $2,360–$2,320, we might see buyers step in, and that could push ETH toward $2,600, where there’s more liquidity.
Just to be clear — this isn’t a price prediction.
Shorting is risky (a pump can start without a dip), and these aren’t exactly the safest entry zones either. On lower timeframes, only look for entries after a buyer reaction — and know the risks. Still, I think these observations can be useful to you.
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