#Bitcoin's Double Top Warrants Caution, But a 2022-Like Crash Is Unlikely: Sygnum Bank
Bitcoin’s climb above $100,000 has raised concerns about a possible double top pattern—often a bearish signal—but a severe price crash like in 2022 seems unlikely without a major unexpected shock, says Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum Bank.
A Market Backed by Institutions
Unlike previous cycles, the current bull run is being driven by institutional capital, making it more resilient, Tischhauser told CoinDesk. She pointed out that institutional investors typically undergo rigorous risk assessments and tend to commit for the long term—a key reason this rally is different from hype-driven runs of the past.
Since the launch of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, over $48 billion has flowed into these products, according to Farside Investors. Meanwhile, 141 public companies now hold a combined 841,693 BTC, per data from bitcointreasuries.net.
This influx is absorbing available liquidity, meaning each new large buyer faces less available supply—pushing prices higher in a more sustained manner.
> “Every time a big-ticket investor places bids, it impacts the market more strongly because of the diminishing available supply,” Tischhauser said.
Why the Double Top Still Matters
While the market's fundamentals are improving, technical analysts have flagged a possible double top near $110,000. This pattern—two price peaks at similar levels separated by a dip (in this case, $75,000 in early April)—has led some, including veteran analyst Peter Brandt, to warn of a bearish reversal.
If this pattern breaks down, Bitcoin could drop significantly—potentially as low as $27,000, a 75% decline from the recent peak. But Tischhauser cautions against jumping to conclusions based on technicals alone.
> “Crypto is a sentiment-driven market, and patterns like the double top can become self-fulfilling. But to see a crash like 2022, you’d need a black swan—something like the Terra collapse or FTX implosion,” she explained.
Halving Cycle Losing Influence?
Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle—which cuts the supply of new BTC in half—has dictated bull and bear markets. The last halving in April 2024 reduced rewards to 3.125 BTC per block.
But Tischhauser argues that institutional demand has overtaken mining economics in shaping price trends.
> “The halving used to matter when miners controlled much of the supply. Now, miner selling is just 0.05% to 0.1% of daily trading volume. That’s too small to drive price action,” she said.
In other words, the halving cycle may no longer have the predictive power it once did.
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📌 Key Takeaways:
A double top around $110K warrants caution, but a major crash is unlikely without a “black swan” event.
Institutional capital is driving this bull market—making it more stable than past cycles.
Bitcoin’s halving cycle may be losing its relevance due to changing market dynamics and decreased miner influence.
