On June 26, at the close of the European session, the price of Dogecoin was close to $0.162, with little change for the day, but still more than 13% higher than the low volatility point from last Sunday. However, behind this calm price movement, the market is in what YouTube analyst More Crypto Online describes as a 'wait-and-see' state, which could trigger decisive upward momentum or fall back to $0.14.
Dogecoin is on the brink
In a video released yesterday titled 'Is Dogecoin About to Crash or Skyrocket? Price Analysis and Scenarios,' this Elliott Wave commentator believes the rise since the low on June 22 is not yet complete.
'Yes, the Dogecoin chart is still trying to reverse upward from the oscillating low formed on June 22,' he said at the outset, emphasizing that the rise so far is 'just a three-wave move.' Since the chart has not yet printed the complete five-wave sequence that typically initiates a new bullish trend, he cautioned traders not to assume that the worst is over.
This technician identified the low on June 22 as being within the demand zone between $0.15 and $0.14, which also includes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from May to June, and is slightly above the breakout point of the April cycle—what he refers to as the 'hard' failure point. From there, Dogecoin entered what he calls the 'ABC' recovery phase, with the third wave peaking at $0.169, which is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension he looks for in a 'healthy third wave.' If the price can now form a higher low for the fourth wave and extend to a fifth-wave peak around $0.174 to $0.177, this analyst stated, 'We would actually have five waves up, and then we could get support... and that gives us a setup.'
Before confirmation, this wave movement will remain a 'chameleon-like' wave B—more prone to deeper retracements than the second wave, which is more bullishly inclined. The bottom line is $0.158. 'Any movement below $0.158 indicates that the upward reversal attempt has failed, and we will fall back to support, potentially testing the $0.14 level,' he warned. Conversely, holding above this minor support and breaking through the $0.17 resistance would provide the first 'evidence' that a lasting bottom has formed.
The risk is high, as the analyst pointed out, because the confirmation of the five-wave impulse will force subsequent corrections to follow the high-low framework, allowing traders to reposition with clearer risk parameters. If it fails, Dogecoin could return to the wide consolidation range dominated in June, potentially shifting market sentiment toward a long-term decline.
Currently, Dogecoin's short-term fate depends on whether buyers can generate the final fifth wave of upward movement without first breaking below $0.158. He concluded, 'For now, we are in a wait-and-see state to see if a five-wave rise can really form.' Until the chart is finalized, Dogecoin will continue to hover between technical breakthroughs and further declines—the rise or fall depends on an intraday signal.
As of the time of writing, the trading price of DOGE is $0.161.
