$BTC

Yesterday's expectation was a pullback near 105,000, with the lowest point reaching 106,000. Bears are unlikely to take significant action before the delivery;

Today is the quarterly contract and options delivery, and the upcoming Q3 trend will depend on U.S. Treasury bonds. July is an important juncture for U.S. Treasuries. If in Q3, the issuance of short-term government bonds exceeds that of long-term bonds, this will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In Q3, Bitcoin is expected to continue climbing to 120,000. Conversely, if next month long-term bonds exceed short-term bonds, it would indicate significant bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin likely forming a double top around 110,000. Considering the probability before mid-term elections, the former scenario seems more likely. From a data perspective, despite recent whale activity on Bitfinex, the overall data is much weaker compared to 2023 and 2024. Although the data has a lagging nature, this also suggests that whales are not optimistic about the market's future; even if Q3 breaks through 120,000, it may be short-lived.

Today, the daily MA5 has successfully stood above the 30-day line, and in the short term, we still look for a pullback to support at 105,000.

$ETH

Yesterday's expectation was for consolidation around 2,400, which met expectations;

Today is the delivery, and it is highly likely to continue fluctuating around 2,400, with further consolidation expected;