Today's Outlook
1. The U.S. Core PCE Price Index year-on-year for May will be announced today, previous value 2.50%.
2. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June in the U.S. will be announced today, previous value 60.5.
3. LayerZero has completed the second round of the fee switch referendum.
4. Yield Guild Games (YGG) has unlocked approximately 14.08 million tokens, accounting for 2.68% of the current circulating supply.
5. Moonveil has launched the $MORE TGE, opening the page for checking investment qualifications.
6. The decentralized content distribution network Pipe has launched its token sale on CoinList.
Macro & Hotspots
1. Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no plans to restart nuclear negotiations. On the 26th, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated that there are no plans to restart negotiations on the nuclear issue. He emphasized that certain speculations regarding the resumption of talks should not be overstated. He clearly stated that no agreements, arrangements, or dialogues have been reached to initiate new negotiations, and Iran has not formulated any plans to start negotiations.
2. Several local securities firms in Hong Kong (such as Victory Securities (8540.H), Aird Securities, etc.) have completed the upgrade of License No. 1. More institutions may enter the market in the future, and Guotai Junan International is not the only Chinese-funded brokerage applying for a license. The brokers primarily provide 'distribution' type trading services rather than self-operated exchange operations. Specifically, their model is to establish comprehensive accounts (Omnibus Account) within licensed exchanges and provide clients with trading channels for mainstream compliant cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, without involving high-risk altcoins or meme coins. Currently, several local brokerages have launched similar distribution services, and their compliance requirements regarding customer due diligence (KYC), suitability management, and investor education are basically consistent with Guotai Junan International, and they prohibit residents of mainland China from participating in trading.
3. BTC options with a nominal value of 15 billion USD will expire and settle today, with the maximum pain point at 102,000 USD. Data shows that over 17 billion USD worth of BTC and ETH options will expire today, marking the largest options expiration trade of the year so far. Among them: BTC: nominal value 15 billion USD, put-to-call ratio 0.74, maximum pain point: 102,000 USD; ETH: nominal value 2.3 billion USD, put-to-call ratio 0.52, maximum pain point: 2,200 USD.
4. A spokesperson for the ruling party in India has called for the initiation of a Bitcoin reserve pilot program. Pradeep Bandari, a spokesperson for the ruling BJP party in India, recently published an article in (India Today) urging India to consider launching a Bitcoin reserve pilot program. Bandari stated that the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves and Bhutan's state-led mining operations indicate that the global financial system is shifting towards cryptocurrencies. He pointed out that India currently imposes a high tax of 30% on crypto assets but has yet to establish a regulatory framework, putting it in an awkward position of 'taxing but not regulating.' Bandari believes that India has an expanding renewable energy infrastructure and is in a position to formulate a sovereign Bitcoin strategy, which would be a strategic move to enhance economic resilience and showcase a modern image.
5. Grayscale has updated its third-quarter Top 20 list, adding AVAX and MORPHO while removing LDO and OP. According to the official announcement, Grayscale Research has updated the Top 20 asset list for the third quarter of 2025, adding Avalanche (AVAX) and Morpho (MORPHO) due to increased on-chain trading activity and strong growth in decentralized lending; the removed Lido DAO (LDO) and Optimism (OP) face competitive pressure from centralized staking services and uncertainty in token revenue distribution.
Market Trends
1. BTC is experiencing short-term fluctuations, with mixed market movements; in the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled 226 million, mainly from long positions; smaller coins like TAG MINT are rising, while Memecoin BANANAS31 has halved and led the decline; KAS AB has entered the top ten in trading volume.
2. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near historical highs, with Nvidia reaching a new high; the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. Senior Federal Reserve officials have been vocal: they are not yet prepared to support interest rate cuts at the July meeting.
3. In the clearing map of BTC/USDT, based on the current value of 107,138 USDT, if it drops by 2,000 points to around 105,138, the cumulative liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 702 million USD. If it rises by 2,000 points to around 109,138, the cumulative liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 655 million USD. The liquidation amount for long positions is significantly greater than for short positions, suggesting a reasonable control of leverage to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.
4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows amounted to 1.4 billion USD, outflows reached 1.6 billion USD, resulting in a net outflow of 200 million USD.
5. In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of contracts such as ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, and HYPE, indicating potential trading opportunities.
