Investing is like running a marathon; it relies on endurance rather than explosiveness. Even if there are losses in the short term, there is nothing to fear as long as you recognize the big trend; what should return will eventually come back. The key is to learn to act at the right moment and follow the market rhythm, as this will increase the probability of making money. Remember, investing is a continuous learning process. It is recommended that everyone take time to review their trades after each transaction, whether they gain or lose, gradually accumulate experience, develop sensitivity to risks, and also cultivate a mindset that does not let emotions influence your judgment. Only by being steady and methodical can you go further in this market. Stay patient, keep learning, and manage risks well; you will eventually become a mature investor.
Yesterday's industry dynamics
1. Federal Reserve's Collins: July rate cuts may be premature; 2. Trump: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it will be helpful; 3. Paypal CEO: Creating real use cases for stablecoins for customers; 4. The judge has rejected Ripple and the SEC's request to pause the appeal; 5. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill directing the Department of Commerce to promote blockchain technology; 6. U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chair: The crypto market structure bill will be completed by September 30; 7. White House digital asset policy advisor: The U.S. is working on building infrastructure for strategic Bitcoin reserves; 8. The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac jointly established the U.S. Financial Technology LLC.
According to CME's 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 20.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 74.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 19.1%.
Data shows that in the last 24 hours, there has been a liquidation of 226 million USD across the network, with long positions liquidating 127 million USD and short positions liquidating 98.53 million USD, primarily in long positions. Among them, ETH liquidations amounted to 73.74 million USD, and BTC liquidations totaled 46.45 million USD.
In the 'Satoshi Nakamoto era', miners sold only 150 bitcoins in 2025. As BTC prices set new historical highs again in 2025, large miners are increasing their reserves. Since April, miners holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins have added 4,000 BTC to their reserves. In contrast, the oldest participants have significantly reduced their sales compared to 2024. According to CryptoQuant reports, the selling volume of 'Satoshi Nakamoto era' miners remains low; to date, these miners have only sold 150 bitcoins in 2025, compared to nearly 10,000 bitcoins in 2024.
Yesterday, Bitcoin showed a pattern of high volatility, with the price retreating after reaching a resistance level of 108,250 yuan, currently maintaining fluctuations around 107,000. The current price has adjusted back to the daily increase starting point, and if it effectively breaks below the support level of 106,500, it may trigger further downward movement.
From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, indicating a weakening short-term market momentum. The price exhibits a fluctuating correction trend, but the support below has not been effectively broken. The strategy remains to maintain a high short and low long approach within the range, but caution is needed regarding downward risks. If the intraday rebound cannot effectively stabilize above 107,500 yuan, the probability of testing 105,800 yuan or even lower increases, making it inadvisable to aggressively chase long positions. Short-term operations should rely on key levels. Key levels to watch are resistance at 107,500 and 108,500 above, and support at 106,500 and 105,800 below.
Today, the market will continue to fluctuate. The forces of buyers and sellers are roughly equal, and neither side can completely dominate the other for now. This stalemate may persist for a while, and patience is needed to wait for the market to ultimately choose a direction.
The suggestions are for reference only; market fluctuations are difficult to predict. Regardless of how well you grasp the market situation, please strictly implement profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.
The beauty of fate lies in its infinite variables, which are always elusive. Do not demand that life be exciting at every turn; it is only through 95% ordinary moments that we can polish 5% classic moments. When walking alone, do not look back and forth; understanding loneliness can also provide a unique flavor.
(This content does not constitute investment advice; please view it rationally, establish correct concepts, and improve risk awareness.)