Chances of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September rose to 51%, above the 45% "no change" guess.
XRP is now at $2.18, where there's solid support above $2.17, while near-term resistance is at $2.22.
Despite rate speculation, XRP’s price remains range-bound, signaling market indecision around macro triggers.
XRP is at $2.18 after a small decline of 0.4% over the last 24 hours. The price movement coincides with rising expectations of a September rate cut. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 51%. This marks a notable shift from the prior 45% probability recorded earlier this month.
Polymarket Data Shows 51% Odds for Rate Cut
Polymarket's latest chart shows a rising trend for a 25 basis point decrease by the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting. The blue line, representing this expectation, surpassed the red line — indicating “no change” — for the first time in weeks. The “no change” option now holds 45% probability, while expectations for a larger 50+ basis point cut remain at 3.9%.
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The green and purple lines, which represent rate increases, continue to trade below 1% and 5%, respectively. These low values reflect minimal expectations for tightening. The increased likelihood of a cut has drawn attention from crypto market participants closely tracking interest rate speculation.
XRP Faces Resistance at $2.22 with Support Holding at $2.17
While broader macroeconomic shifts are unfolding, XRP’s technical chart shows resistance near $2.22. The asset’s support zone remains near $2.17. Over the past 24 hours, the price has remained bound within a small range, between the support and resistance levels.
However, despite this drop in price, XRP has been able to remain above its key support. The existing chart indicates indecision that may be linked to macro factors including Fed pending rate decision.
Market Volume and Sentiment Shift Alongside Rate Speculation
The total market volume for XRP remains steady as participants assess future moves. The Polymarket chart suggests a tilt in sentiment, especially with 51% now favoring easing policy. This data aligns with subdued volatility in XRP’s current trading channel, but keeps $2.22 as a notable short-term resistance.
