Holding on: “If you ask about Bitcoin, I can say I will never be bearish on Bitcoin. Although I might short it under certain structures, from an overall perspective, everyone can see—from MicroStrategy continuously buying Bitcoin, to many institutions in the U.S. daily having net inflows to buy Bitcoin, this phenomenon has determined that Bitcoin will not experience that kind of super crash.
In past transitions between bull and bear markets, whether it’s a long-term cycle or a short-term correction, the magnitude has generally been over 25%. However, in this round of market, from $110,000 dropping to over $70,000, it has just barely reached the lowest correction line of past 'bull-bear transitions.' So I personally feel that Bitcoin still potentially has room to rise in the future, but this rise will be slow and painful, not the kind of one-sided surge from $10,000 to $40,000 or $60,000.
There's a saying, 'Rallies are all born from declines.' If Bitcoin does not experience a relatively deep correction, its upward momentum will likely be choppy, wearing down people's patience. If you're a short-term trader, you won't be able to hold on; if you're a long-term investor, you need to constantly build a mindset for yourself, reminding yourself: 'Countries are buying, institutions are buying,' and even if it declines, you have to grit your teeth and increase your position, willing to continue buying. Therefore, I believe it will be a long-term advantageous asset.
Additionally, as long as Trump is in office, I think it's unlikely that Bitcoin will experience a particularly deep bear market. From a policy perspective, this is also the case. After all, this has been one of the directions strongly promoted by the Trump administration over the years—cryptocurrency markets, which is destined to be a long-term positive. So if you ask whether there will be a bear market? I wouldn’t dare to say there will be a deep bear market, but if there’s a correction of around 25%, I believe there will definitely be one this year, and I'm currently waiting for such a correction. But once the correction arrives, I will certainly choose to go long again.
