ETH is in a desperate struggle! Whales are hoarding at 2450, how can retail investors snatch food from the jaws of the tiger?
Technical Analysis:
1. Currently stuck at a key position: The current price is fluctuating around 2451, just a short distance from the 50% Fibonacci level. This is a 'psychological barrier.'
2. The upper side is the resistance zone:
There is a glaring 'watershed' above, like a high wall in the middle of the road.
There are still a bunch of resistances at the wall base: 38.2%, 28.6%, and the most stubborn 23.6%. Want to rise? You need to increase the volume to break through!
Purple rectangle: This is the place that has repeatedly failed to break through recently; there are many trapped positions inside, wanting to rise requires 'real money' to hard hit.
3. Looking for support below:
The first stepping stone underfoot is that 50% boundary line at 2453/2450; we are basically dancing right on it now.
If it gets tired and falls down, let’s hope the 61.8% and 78.6% can catch it.
The real 'lifeline' is at the 100% annual low. If it breaks through, it will be like breaking the window paper, and panic selling will emerge!
4. Indicators in the show: MACD, KDJ, and other indicators are currently quiet on the chart, indicating that neither bulls nor bears are exerting much force; we are currently in a phase of time-consuming fluctuations. Once they give clear 'golden cross' or 'death cross' signals, the direction will become clear.
5. Conclusion: Short-term weak fluctuations; if it can't rise above 2499, it won't surge much, and as long as it doesn't break below 2398, it won't die. The area around 2450 is the core of the current battlefield! We must keep an eye on the gains and losses at this position; the breakthrough direction represents short-term strength.
News:
Tightening environment: When will the Americans lower interest rates? By how much? This is the lifeline for the entire crypto market. Recently, there have been many hawkish statements, and the market is cautious, with money reluctant to move around.
SEC is holding back a big move: What is the SEC's stance on whether Ethereum is a security or a commodity? This lawsuit is still hanging. They are dragging their feet on the 'Ethereum spot ETF' applications from various institutions; any slight movement can send ETH into a frenzy.
Cancun upgrade digestion period: The previous Cancun upgrade was already speculated upon; now we need to wait for the actual effects and more applications to prove its value.
Regulatory Sword: Global regulatory policies on cryptocurrency are changing daily, especially the attitudes of large institutions, which directly affect market sentiment. A negative news can crash the market in minutes.
Rapid switching of hotspots within the circle: Currently, funds are more interested in new hotspots; ETH feels a bit 'bled dry' and needs to prove itself or have a new story.
Brother Sheng's straightforward words:
1. Current situation: A transitional phase! The technical aspect is stuck with no clear direction, and there are no heavy news bombs. The main force is observing while retail investors are anxious, a typical 'bull-bear balance' fluctuation period. In such a market, chasing highs and cutting losses can easily lead to slaps in the face.
2. How will it move in the short term? The key is to look at these positions:
Upward breakout: If it stands firm above the 2499 watershed with increased volume, the short-term atmosphere will come alive, likely testing 2520 or even higher. At this point, you can enter with small positions, quick in and out.
Downward smash: If it effectively falls below 2450 and can’t recover, the technical traders will have to run, and the next target will be around 2398. If this position can’t hold either, risk aversion sentiment will explode, likely sliding towards 2300, but when it gets to that level, big money will probably come in to buy the dip.
Continue to grind: The most likely scenario is to continue fluctuating within the small box from 2450 to 2490, making people dizzy.
3. Trading strategy, Brother Sheng's version:
Observation/Caution: Before the fluctuation range is broken, watching more and acting less is the most worry-free strategy.
Want to buy the dip? Be bold yet careful! If it really drops to around 2400 or even 2380, consider laying out spot purchases in batches with small positions. The prerequisite is to set a stop-loss!
Want to chase the rise? Wait for a clear signal! Confirm an effective breakout above 2500/2520 before considering getting in; it’s better to earn a little less than to be left standing. Also, set a stop-loss.
Swing trading: In a small range, high sell and low buy, but you must set strict take-profit and stop-loss levels, quick in and out, don’t be greedy or stubborn.
4. What to look at in the medium term? A real major market movement will either wait for the interest rate cut + SEC approval of the ETF, this super bullish combination punch; or it will drop to a 'golden pit' that makes big money envious. Right now, patience is more valuable than gold.
Summary for fans:
ETH is currently in a 'standoff'! The upper resistance at 2499 is blocking the way, the lower support at 2398 is protecting the base, and the middle at 2450 is the arena. Until a one-sided breakout occurs, don’t hold too heavy a position; if you want to operate, play the high sell and low buy strategy, with strict stop-loss. Keep an eye on the US stock market and the Federal Reserve; they are the real big players! We, the small traders, patiently wait for opportunities; don’t rush.
Don’t mess around! Stick close to Brother Sheng, hit that follow button! Let’s dig for the next batch of tenfold coins! Exclusive insider information limited release.