The cryptocurrency market has once again experienced a terrifying scene. On June 26, the on-chain monitoring agency Lookonchain disclosed that the whale address 0xD071 deposited 53.16 billion PEPE into Binance in one go. Shockingly, these tokens were withdrawn from the same exchange just a week earlier, resulting in a paper loss of $483,000 in just 7 days. This is not an isolated incident—it has ripped open a corner of the PEPE ecological crisis and sounded the alarm for meme coin investors.
1 Whales are continuously cutting losses, market alarm is sounding
The "bleeding" exit has become the norm: this sell-off is just a continuation of the PEPE whale retreat. On June 19, the giant whale 0x6ea transferred the last 600 billion PEPE to Binance, incurring a monthly loss of $3.45 million, with a return rate of -12.5%. Even more severe, on June 21, a certain whale liquidated 22 trillion PEPE, with assets shrinking by 87% in just 10 days, resulting in a net loss of $3.5 million.
Profit-takers accelerate cashing out: On June 16, the whale qianbaidu.eth transferred 59.419 billion PEPE to Binance for cashing out after realizing a profit of $3.83 million from trading PEPE and HYPE. Even profitable whales are seeking to secure their gains, highlighting the fragility of market confidence.
Institutional reverse operations bury variables: When retail whales are selling, professional trading company Cumberland withdrew 38.645 billion PEPE from Bybit and OKX to private wallets on June 23. Such "withdrawals from exchanges" usually indicate accumulation intentions, suggesting fierce competition between bulls and bears in the market.
2 Market and technical aspects: The battle for survival lines in the crash
PEPE has been in a continuous downward trend since 2025. The current price range is $0.0000095–$0.000011, with a monthly decline of 25%, and the key support level of $0.000010 has been breached. Technical indicators are deteriorating across the board:
Momentum indicators are deteriorating: RSI has fallen to the oversold edge at 33, MACD remains in negative territory, and the price is suppressed below all key moving averages, indicating a clear bearish pattern.
Key support is being tested: The $0.00000761 level has become the last line of defense—this position triggered a 112% surge on May 6. If this support is lost, the downward space will open up to the abyss area of $0.00000705-$0.00000740.
Liquidation heatmap warns of risk: There is a dense liquidation cluster in the range of $0.00000867 to $0.0000093. If the price rebounds and breaks through $0.0000093, it may trigger a short squeeze; conversely, if it falls below $0.0000082, it will accelerate the decline.
However, faint signs of recovery are emerging. The 1-hour chart initially shows a "three-force model" consisting of accumulation, manipulation, and expansion phases. It is currently in a rebound testing phase after a false break at $0.00000956; if it stabilizes above $0.00000980 and breaks through $0.00001018, it may trigger a short-term rebound of 13% to $0.000010868.
3 Analysis of news: The market language behind whale behavior
Whale operations have become the core catalyst for PEPE price fluctuations, and their behavior patterns release key signals:
Depositing to exchanges = sell-off warning: When whales transfer tokens to exchanges, it usually indicates immediate selling pressure. Recently, multiple large transfers have led to PEPE plummeting by 3.2% within 6 hours, with trading volume surging by 18%.
On-chain data serves as a leading indicator: Monitoring tools like Lookonchain and Arkham can track large transfers. For example, after a certain whale transferred 1 trillion PEPE to Binance on June 10, the price dropped by 2% within 24 hours.
Market sentiment is extremely sensitive: PEPE has a correlation of 0.651 with the Nasdaq index, and on June 18, GameStop's stock price fell by 5%, indirectly suppressing meme coins. At the same time, although the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds is beneficial for the overall market, its transmission effect on PEPE is limited.
Survival guide for ordinary investors: Find opportunities in the whale war
In the face of a highly volatile battlefield, retail investors must adhere to the "survival rule": Position management:
Invest ≤3% of your position in meme coins, treating it as "planned gambling" rather than investment. Data from Ember shows that successful traders usually spread their positions during crashes: breaking funds into 3-4 support levels (such as $0.0000090, $0.0000085, $0.0000076) for step-by-step accumulation.
Technical defenses:
Strictly set a stop-loss line at $0.00000075 to prevent liquidity crashes caused by whale dumping. Meanwhile, use on-chain monitoring tools to track whale movements, as large withdrawals often indicate rebounds, while deposits to exchanges signal selling pressure.
When RSI drops below 30 and the daily decline exceeds 15%, a "panic buying" strategy can be initiated. Historical data shows that PEPE has a 68% chance of rebounding within 72 hours after extreme overselling. However, this should be reinforced with large OTC purchases of over $3.45 million.
PEPE is at a critical juncture. The whale's $480,000 loss reveals the harsh reality of the meme coin ecosystem: tokens without fundamental support are ultimately just chips in financial games. However, the technical "three-force model" and the historical support at $0.00000761 retain the last spark for the bulls.
For retail investors, the key to this war is "not to take sides"—using 3% of positions to pick up chips during whale sell-offs, and decisively exiting during on-chain anomalies and technical breakdowns. If it can hold above $0.00000761 and attract $3.45 million-level buy orders before the end of June, PEPE may repeat the 112% counterattack in May. Otherwise, the final carnival of meme season may end in the silence of the frog.