The expectation for the PCE data to be announced on Friday is at 2.6%. A data point below this rate could strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts. Many Fed officials view rate cuts positively unless tariffs have a significant impact on inflation. Additionally, the state of the yield curve supports signals for rate cuts. Funding rates indicate that the rise in cryptocurrencies may continue.

While discussions regarding tariffs continue between the US and China, a ceasefire has been achieved between the parties, and tensions with China have ended. Now, the important step that cryptocurrency investors are waiting for is for the Fed to send the message 'we are lowering rates.' However, this requires no sharp increase in inflation; therefore, the PCE data to be announced on Friday is of critical importance.

As we mentioned earlier, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be announced on Friday, June 27. This data, which is the most important inflation indicator monitored by the Fed, is of great importance, especially in terms of seeing the effect of tariffs that came into effect in April and increased product prices by a base of 10%. As companies begin to deplete their inventories, price increases are observed; thus, the PCE data will reveal the real impact of tariffs on inflation.

In the last six days, three Fed members indicated that an interest rate cut could happen in July. Two of them emphasized the necessity of a rate cut if inflation does not rise. However, the first Fed member to speak on Friday, Waller, stated that there is a serious slowdown in the labor market and that interest rates need to be lowered.

The expectation for the PCE data is at 2.3% on an annual basis; the previous data was 2.1%. Since the Fed's target is 2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase is considered tolerable. However, if the data exceeds this level, Fed members may postpone interest rate cuts to September. In the most favorable scenario, if PCE comes in at 2.1% or below, we may see that expectations for interest rate cuts are priced into cryptocurrencies. The expectation for core PCE is 2.6%, and the previous value was 2.5%.

Looking at the markets, long-term treasury bonds are showing weak performance. Oil prices have shown a partial recovery after experiencing the largest two-day drop since 2022. The dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years. The SPX index is hovering just below its all-time high. The Nasdaq 100 reached its ATH level today with NVIDIA's record-breaking performance. The Russell 2000 index gave a signal of positive correlation with altcoins by falling 1.2%.

The interest rate difference between 30-year and 5-year bonds has approached the levels seen in 2021. The steepening of the yield curve strengthens expectations that the Fed will soon begin cutting rates. Despite recent rallies, funding rates in the cryptocurrency market are still at low levels. This suggests that there could be support for further rises in the futures markets. In other words, while signs of exhaustion are seen in the rise of stock markets, potential continues in cryptocurrencies.

DaanCrypto, who evaluates through the TOTAL chart showing the total value of the cryptocurrency market, stated that the bounce from the support point is a positive sign: 'The total cryptocurrency market value rose to a critical level and has been on an upward trend since that date. This is a nice signal that the overall upward momentum is strong. However, if it falls below this level, there is a possibility of broader consolidation or decline in the summer months. This is an important level to watch. It corresponds to approximately $100,000 for BTC.'

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