Today's SOL Market Trend Analysis:

1. Technical Key Price Level Analysis

  1. Bull-Bear Dividing Line: $145

    • Resistance Turning Support: If SOL can stabilize above $145, it may trigger a short-term upward trend, targeting the $165-$170 range.

    • Breakout Signal: Recently, SOL has broken through the downward trend line, and the 4-hour chart shows over $20 million in short liquidations, indicating strengthened bullish momentum.

    • If it falls below $145: It may retest the $138 support; if it breaks, the risk will increase, targeting $124-$114.

  2. Long-term Trend Structure

    • Elliott Wave Theory: SOL is at the end of the 4th wave adjustment; if it holds the key support at $109, the 5th wave may push the price to $270-$320.

    • Moving Average System: The daily chart is still under pressure from the 50/200-day moving averages, requiring a volume breakout to confirm a reversal.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Type Price Range (Importance of Key Resistance 150-156 moving average cluster, breaking through will open up upward space. Bull-bear dividing line at 145, short-term trend reversal point with key support at 138-140. Bollinger Band lower band, demand area risk support at 124-114. Breaking below may trigger a deep correction.

2. On-chain Data and Market Sentiment

  1. Bullish On-chain Signals

    • Exchange Net Outflow: In the past 48 hours, $73 million SOL has been withdrawn from exchanges, indicating that institutions/whales are accumulating at lower prices.

    • Sentiment Divergence: 71.03% of holders are optimistic, but 74.79% of Binance traders are long, indicating caution against overcrowded long positions.

  2. Options market suggests volatility

    • Deribit options indicate a significant accumulation of call options in the $135-$140 range, with an implied volatility of 87.5%, suggesting a potential one-sided market in the near future.

3. Fundamentals and Macroeconomic Factors

  1. ETF Progress and Staking Terms
    Fidelity, Grayscale, and other 7 institutions have submitted revised Solana ETF applications, including staking reward terms. If approved, SOL will upgrade from a passive tracking tool to an income-generating asset, attracting long-term capital.

  2. Ecosystem Activity

    • Solana's on-chain daily transactions exceed 48 million, with fees below $0.002, and high throughput maintains developer and user stickiness.

    • Meme Coin Aura's market capitalization surpasses $240 million, indicating continued speculative capital inflow into the ecosystem.

  3. Geopolitical Risks
    If the situation in the Middle East escalates, it may correlate with Bitcoin's decline, dragging down SOL.

4. Bull-Bear Scenario Simulation

Short-term Trend Scenario Analysis

Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Signal Verification Bullish Dominance Daily close stable at $145 with volume increase to $160→$170→$180 RSI breaks 50, trading volume increases by 30%+ Consolidation in the $138-$150 range volatility trading opportunities Volatility below 0.9 Bears push below $138 with volume increase to $124→$114 Panic sentiment spreads, funding rates turn negative

5. Operational Recommendations

Aggressive: At the current price of $145.6, take a small long position, stop loss at $138, target $160-$170.

Conservative: After breaking and stabilizing above $150, go long, or accumulate in batches at the $124-$130 area.

Risk Warning: Pay attention to the options expiration on June 27.

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