⚠️ JPMorgan Warns: U.S. Tariffs Could Trigger Stagflation
> “Sticky inflation + slow growth = toxic mix”
🧠 Key Highlights:
🔻 Recession Risk:
40% chance of a recession in H2 2025
GDP forecast slashed from 2.0% to 1.3%
📈 Stagflation Concerns:
New tariffs (announced in April) could raise prices while slowing growth
Stagflation last seen in the 1970s: high inflation + low growth + rising unemployment
JPMorgan cites tariffs as the main driver behind the downgrade
💸 Interest Rates & Yields:
2-year U.S. Treasury yield: 3.8%
10-year yield: ~4.3%
JPMorgan sees no Fed rate cuts until December, followed by gradual easing into 2026
📉 U.S. Dollar Outlook:
Bearish on USD: global growth > U.S. growth
Foreign demand for Treasuries could weaken, pushing up yields
Protectionist stance could hurt investor confidence
📊 Equity Market View:
Still bullish on U.S. stocks
Tech, AI, and consumer spending likely to support market gains
Caution: geopolitical risks and policy missteps could reverse sentiment
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📉 Summary Insight:
JPMorgan’s message is clear:
> Tariffs may shield industries short term, but risk triggering 1970s-st$BNB
yle stagflation, hurting growth and inflation balance.