Markets Price in Low Odds for July Fed Rate Cut as Uncertainty Persists

According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool data on June 26, traders assign just 24.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, with 75.2% expecting rates to remain unchanged.

Key Takeaways:

• Dovish Expectations Fade: The 24.8% cut probability marks a significant drop from 35% just weeks ago

• Data Dependency: Markets await:

June jobs report (July 5)

June CPI data (July 11)

• September Focus: 78% chance of at least one cut priced in by September meeting

Market Implications:

📉 Treasury yields edge higher (10-year at 4.33%)

📊 USD index holds near 2-month highs

💰 Fed funds futures show:

62% chance of 1-2 cuts in 2025

38% chance of no cuts this year

Expert Insight: "The Fed needs 3 consecutive soft CPI prints before acting" - Goldman Sachs analysis$BTC