The MVRV Z-Score for Bitcoin indicates strong bullish continuation, as it remains well below historical euphoria levels. While the cryptocurrency stabilizes above $60,000, analysts agree that the market has not yet reached peak speculation levels.
●▪︎ MVRV Z-Score reflects controlled investor behavior
The MVRV Z-Score, which measures the gap between Bitcoin's market cap and its realized value, ranges between 2 and 3.5. According to Stockmoney Lizards, this neutral to bullish range indicates that Bitcoin is not in an overbought territory.
Previous market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 saw the Z-Score rise above 7, even reaching 9, indicating euphoric price behavior before sharp corrections. Bitcoin has not seen such excessive expansion in the 2023-2025 cycle, reinforcing the absence of irrational profit-taking.
●▪︎ Growth in realized market cap shows long-term conviction
The realized market cap of Bitcoin, now exceeding $500 billion, continues to grow without any significant pullbacks. This steady rise reflects increasing conviction from investors and a greater commitment to capital.
As the market cap approaches $1.3 trillion, realized market cap metrics indicate that investors are holding onto their positions rather than quickly selling for quick gains. This absence of panic selling, even amid rising prices, reinforces the bullish structure forming in Bitcoin's macroeconomic outlook.
●▪︎ Network activity confirms the absence of a retail sector recovery
In a separate analysis, Crypto Rover highlighted active Bitcoin addresses, which have maintained a steady average above 900,000 daily. Unlike the sharp spikes in 2017 and 2021, when user activity surged alongside price recoveries, 2025 shows a flatter and calmer network curve.
This lack of noticeable growth in Bitcoin addresses indicates a decline in the number of speculative participants and an increase in interaction stability. The rise in Bitcoin's price, coupled with stable usage, reflects a more mature and disciplined environment.
●▪︎ No signs of euphoric peaks yet
The Bitcoin Z-Score has not exceeded 4 during this cycle, and with historical peaks above 6, the market shows no signs of euphoric behavior. Analysts tracking this on-chain metric believe the cycle is still on its way to take off.
With over a million active addresses and rising capital flows, Bitcoin continues to show its strength without euphoria. The absence of joy is a bullish indicator, suggesting that Bitcoin's next move may be stronger.
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