Ethereum consolidates below 50-day EMA while MVRV and whale accumulation hint at potential breakout scenario.
NVT volatility and liquidation clusters warn of potential increased turbulence despite positive smart money flows.
Ethereum [ETH] has been consolidating in the $2,500 to $2,600 range, testing the 50-day EMA resistance repeatedly without a clear breakout for over a week.
During this period, price movements narrowed within a narrow range, reflecting the indecision of cryptocurrency traders.
As of now, Ethereum is trading at $2,416, slightly below the EMA resistance zone. This pattern is similar to the accumulation phases before previous strong increases.
However, if ETH fails to extend above the $2,800 level aggressively, buyers could continue to be rejected.
Historical behavior around the 50-day EMA shows that strong momentum can quickly turn consolidation into a breakout opportunity.
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
Overheating warning? When pricing exceeds usage
On-chain data paints a mixed picture.
Ethereum's MVRV rose to 19.25%, indicating that the majority of holders are holding unrealized profits.
Historically, levels above 15% have been associated with strong profit-taking, potentially limiting short-term upside. At the same time, the NVT index has surged to 550 – its strongest spike in recent months.
This divergence indicates that market value is increasing faster than actual usage, a warning sign of overheating.
If trading activity does not increase accordingly, ETH could face exhaustion in the short term.
Source: Santiment
Smart money flows increase, retail investors remain cautious
Meanwhile, whale and institutional wallets are quietly accumulating. Whale holdings are up 2.23%, institutional inflows are up 9.28% over the past 30 days.
In contrast, retail investors' holdings increased only slightly by 0.19%, reflecting hesitation and caution.
This divergence suggests that large institutions may be preparing for the upcoming breakout.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will they become a hindrance or a driving force for breakthroughs?
According to Coinglass, the ETH liquidation map shows tight leverage pressure in the price range of $2,500 to $2,550, playing a dual role.
First, this is the resistance zone that has held back previous rallies.
Second, a strong breakout through this area could trigger massive liquidation of short positions – amplifying the rally.
A move above $2,550 could open the door to quick profits, while a rejection could embolden short traders.
Source: CoinGlass
Ethereum's current setup is very sensitive to signals from the 50-day EMA, MVRV profit, and liquidation walls creating a tense confrontation.
While whales accumulate and prices move sideways, signs of overheating valuations and retail investor reticence suggest caution.
Therefore, ETH’s next move will depend on its ability to convert the consolidation phase into strong momentum or surrender to structural resistance.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/ethereum-pressure-ca-voi-eth-bien-dong/
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