The daily chart shows that the price of BTC rose by 4.37% on Monday, reversing the bearish trend of the previous three days. This was followed by a gain of nearly 1% on Tuesday, leading to a daily close of 16,120. As of June 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 0.47% and is trading at $107,476, reversing last week's 8% drop.
Reason 1: Trading volume falls to its lowest level in 10 years, will the ATH be next?
CryptoQuant data shows that the daily exchange flow has dropped to 40,000 BTC per day, a level last seen 10 years ago. This decrease of BTC on centralized exchanges is a clear signal of liquidity scarcity amidst growing institutional interest and spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
In 2016 and 2017, a drop in this metric indicated that a bottom had been reached. The same was observed in late 2018 and early 2019. In both cases, the price of Bitcoin initiated a massive bullish streak that propelled it to new all-time highs. In 2022 and 2023, exchange flow remained low for an extended period before the bullish streak resumed, pushing the BTC price to a new all-time high.
A similar outlook is now observed, with BTC reserves on exchanges remaining low since mid-2024. Therefore, if history follows the trend, there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin will resume its upward streak towards new highs.
Reason 2: Bullish engulfing candle
The weekly chart of Bitcoin's price shows a bullish engulfing candle in action. With four days until the weekly close, investors are watching this signal to confirm the recovery.
While the daily chart of Bitcoin's price may appear bearish, the weekly chart shows a different picture. The mid-June drop pushed the BTC price towards the weekly FVG, extending from $97,900 to $100,700, providing support. The resulting bounce is promising if the weekly candle produces a decisive close above $105,633. This movement will confirm a bullish engulfing candle and attract buyers who missed out.
Reasons 3: Trump's intervention and his pause in the Middle East conflict
The conflict between Iran and Israel caused a collapse in risk markets, such as cryptocurrencies and stocks. Oil was severely affected when the Iranian parliament voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, the intervention of U.S. President Donald Trump and the mutually agreed ceasefire provided short-term relief to the markets. Although Iran violated the ceasefire, prolonged peace in the Middle East could trigger a rebound in the price of Bitcoin.
Final thoughts
From the current price, BTC is just 5.13% away from its all-time high. Coupled with the bullish price prediction for Bitcoin in 2025, the possibility of a bullish engulfing Japanese candle, and the decline in currency reserves to their lowest in 10 years, the odds are skewed in favor of the bulls reaching an all-time high. Additionally, the end of the month often generates volatility and could trigger a Bitcoin (BTC) rally.
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