📉 $Bitcoin ETFs Still Driving Market – But Treasury Buys? Not So Much

While $Bitcoin treasury companies are making headlines, they aren’t moving markets the way $ETFs do, says K33’s Head of Research, Vetle Lunde.

🔍 Key Insights:

$Bitcoin ETFs remain closely tied to price action, with a strong R² of 0.80—meaning $ETF flows explain ~80% of $BTC’s 30-day returns.

In contrast, corporate treasury acquisitions show a weak R² of 0.18, meaning far less influence on price.

📊 In the last 30 days, $Bitcoin $ETFs added 13,000 $BTC, the lowest inflow since April 23—mirroring $BTC’s sluggish price action.

🏢 Treasury firms like Strategy still buy spot $BTC, but many newcomers, like Twenty One Capital (backed by SoftBank), use in-kind share swaps—exchanging shares with whales like $Tether and $Bitfinex. This method creates minimal net market demand, diluting their price impact.

⚠️ Lunde warns that more investors could shift capital away from $BTC spot in favor of these treasury plays, softening market momentum.

📉 Meanwhile, $BTC dropped to $98,200 last week amid U.S.–Iran tensions, before recovering to $105,000 on ceasefire news—ending the week just 1% lower.

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