On June 25, 2025, the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant released an observation: the BTC.com mining pool has recently significantly reduced the number of Bitcoins transferred to Binance. This change occurred as the price of Bitcoin stabilized above $100,000, which may reveal the expectations of major miners for future market trends.
This article will analyze the possible implications of this signal from three aspects: miner behavior, on-chain data, and market psychology.
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One, miners' selling pressure is the market's 'invisible resistance'
Miners are one of the main suppliers of Bitcoin, and most of the newly produced Bitcoin is ultimately sold to cover operating costs. Therefore, miner behavior has high reference value for the market's supply and demand relationship.
Typically, miners will:
Sell-off at price peaks: realize profits, reduce risks
Pause shipments during consolidation or early rise: waiting for higher prices to act
According to CryptoQuant data, the inflow of Bitcoin from the BTC.com mining pool to Binance (i.e., preparing for selling) has recently dropped significantly. If we view such behavior as a signal, it indicates that miners may not believe that the current price has peaked, and therefore choose to continue holding and observing.
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Two, price reaches new highs, selling pressure eases, is the market entering an optimistic mid-stage?
It is worth noting that this miners' behavior of 'turning conservative' occurred in the context where Bitcoin has already surpassed $100K and remains relatively strong. This may reveal two possible directions:
1. Miners believe prices will go higher: they are willing to take the risk of price declines and not realize profits, indicating confidence in the future market.
2. Market supply pressure is decreasing: selling pressure is easing in the short term, creating space for prices to continue rising.
This is an optimistic signal for market participants and may indicate that the market is entering the mid-point of a bull market, rather than its endpoint.
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Three, on-chain data vs. market expectations: how to interpret?
On-chain indicators often signal 'emotional turning points' ahead of prices in a bull market. BTC.com is one of the major Bitcoin mining pools, and its transfer behavior essentially reflects:
The risk appetite of institutional participants
Judgment of market selling pressure
Assessment of liquidity in the crypto market
When these long-term holders choose 'not to sell', it can actually trigger changes in the expectations of other investors, forming a psychological positive feedback effect.
In simple terms: when the easiest sellers choose not to sell, it may indicate that it is not yet the right time to sell.
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Extended thinking: Where is this bull market headed?
From a macro perspective:
The Federal Reserve has gradually released signals for interest rate cuts
ETF funds are steadily flowing in
The total market capitalization of the crypto market has surpassed historical highs
These all contribute to a 'structural bullish' atmosphere due to miners reducing shipments. For retail investors, this is an important moment to understand market rhythm and allocate risk assets.
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Summary
The sharp decline in the flow of BTC.com mining pool to Binance data is not a guarantee of short-term price trends, but it reflects the views of major participants on future market conditions. When miners do not sell and institutions continue to absorb chips, the upward pressure on the market is actually easing.
At this pace, short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the overall structure still supports the continuation of a long-term bullish trend. In the coming weeks, if BTC can hold above $100K and continue to attract capital, the next acceleration may arrive at any time.