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Preface
On the morning of June 24, Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, and the crypto market quickly recovered. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 and then rebounded to $106,000, a single-day increase of more than 8%, and the total market value rebounded by 6%.
The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have strengthened, with Governor Bowman supporting a rate cut in July. Combined with the recent easing of inflationary pressures and improved market liquidity expectations, investor sentiment has been further boosted.
Outlook: With the dual benefits of geopolitical risk easing and interest rate cut expectations, can BTC continue to rebound? Market traders are closely watching the evolution of the trend.
1: Daily market analysis - BTC
This rebound of Bitcoin is quite fierce, breaking through the key pressure level of 107,000!
If it breaks through directly and stabilizes, the upward trend may be stronger. With the support of positive news, it may even rush up to explode the huge short orders near 115,000!
From the chart, 107000 is a key dividing line. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether it can stabilize this position. However, it should be noted that if this wave of rise is mainly to explode the short orders of 112000-115000, it may rise quickly and then fall back.
The specific trend still depends on the real-time market situation. Now the focus is on whether it can really break through!
2: Daily market analysis - ETH
Ethereum is also stuck at a critical pressure point! 2480 was previously a support level, but now it has become a pressure level!
It cannot go up and starts to pull back. The volume is not enough during the day. It is estimated that there will be no movement until the evening. It is still a bit weaker than the big cake. Now the focus is on whether it can break through 2480. If not, the short-term support is 2400-2380
2. Analysis of various market viewpoints
Macro View
The impact of oil prices weakened: the market believes that the probability of Iran blocking the Strait is low (30%), oil prices fell to US$68, and risk sentiment eased.
BTC current situation:
There is no panic on the chain, short-term players are changing hands, and long-term players are waiting and watching.
Support level: 93k-98k; Resistance level: 105k+ (more buying in the short term, be careful of pullbacks).
ETH is weak: funds have been flowing out for 29 consecutive days, BlackRock has withdrawn 8,000+ETH, and Hong Kong ETF has withdrawn 900+ETH. Without liquidity, it is difficult to rise independently, and there is no chance for the altcoin season for the time being.
Technical point of view
BTC key position:
106k is a strong pressure, and it can continue to rise only after breaking through (target 112k-115k to explode the short order).
If it is a false breakthrough, there may be a pin-point decline, with support at 102k or 98k.
Moving average signal:
It fell to the support and rebounded for the first time on June 6, but did not rebound the second time. The moving average began to turn downward, and the short-term trend is bearish.
Bargain hunting opportunities:
Ideal position: 98k (order book support) or 95k-97k (weekly/daily support).
Data observation
Buying becomes weaker: When the market pulled back on June 22, there was less bottom-fishing capital than on June 5, so the rebound may not be as strong as the previous time.
SOL follows the decline but not the rise:
Falling below 140 support, the new range is 123-138.
Short-term pressure is 144-147, there is no independent market trend, it just follows the overall market.
BTC chip dynamics:
720,000 BTC were sold in the past month, but the price did not collapse, indicating that new funds have taken over.
Summarize
Short term: BTC will see if it can break through 106k, ETH/SOL is weak.
Risk: If it rises and then falls, it may pull back to 98k-102k.
Strategy: Don’t chase the rise, wait for the key position to be confirmed (breakthrough or retracement).
(Don’t get carried away when the price goes up, don’t panic when the price goes down, buy and sell at key positions!)
