The current market is facing a critical turning point: observing the combination of global geopolitical games and macroeconomic cycles, the main altcoin rally is likely to be postponed until the second half of 2025, with two potential scenarios: either it will be triggered early during the traditional trading peak in July, continuing until Q4; or it will be delayed until Q4 in line with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, potentially erupting into early 2026.

Despite the industry fundamentals continuously releasing positive signals (such as expectations for Ethereum ETF approval and a rebound in on-chain activity), the risk aversion sentiment triggered by geopolitical conflicts remains like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead, continuously diluting the bullish momentum. The current market has shown signs of "diluted positive news," indicating that large funds are still waiting for macro variables to materialize. It should be noted that if the war situation shows substantial easing, the market may initiate a "violent catch-up" rally in advance, but it is more likely that the main force will repeatedly wash the market using geopolitical uncertainties until the final chip collection is completed.

It is recommended to pay close attention to two key time points: the Federal Reserve's final statement on tariff policy during the July meeting, and the outcome of the October elections regarding the reconstruction of the geopolitical landscape, which may determine whether the altcoin season is "premature" or "grand finale."

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