MicroStrategy (now Strategy) is approaching a historic milestone on Wall Street thanks to Bitcoin

Michael Saylor with the company Strategy is on the brink of a significant milestone in the Wall Street stock market. However, the gatekeeper for this advancement is none other than Bitcoin – the dominant digital asset in their investment strategy.

91% chance that Strategy will join the S&P 500 index if Bitcoin maintains above $95,240

Financial expert Jeff Walton estimates there is a 91% chance that Strategy will be added to the S&P 500 index before the end of Q2. The critical condition is that Bitcoin must maintain a price above $95,240 by June 30. The stability of BTC in these final days is the decisive factor for Strategy's historic opportunity.

The Bitcoin price condition of $95,240 will determine the success or failure of Strategy

To be listed in the S&P 500, a company must demonstrate positive cumulative earnings over the last 4 quarters. Strategy currently holds 592,345 BTC – the largest Bitcoin treasury among public companies. According to ASU 2023-08 accounting regulations, the value of Bitcoin is directly reflected in net income each quarter.

If the price of Bitcoin falls below the threshold of $95,240, Q2 profits will not exceed the total profits of the previous three quarters. In other words, a sudden price crash of Bitcoin could derail Strategy's plans to join the S&P 500 index.

The historical volatility of Bitcoin supports Strategy 91.3%

Short-term volatility data of Bitcoin since 2014 shows that Bitcoin has only dropped more than 10% within 6 days in 8.7% of observations. This means there is a 91.3% chance that Bitcoin's price will remain above the critical level, aligning with Walton's prediction. This ratio increases even more with only 5 days (92.4%) and one day (97.6%) left before the deadline.

The geopolitical situation and Bitcoin market volatility

However, the cryptocurrency market is always affected by hot geopolitical events. Recently, escalating tensions between Iran and Israel caused Bitcoin to plunge below $100,000 – the lowest level since early May. However, the price quickly recovered to around $106,200 at the current time.

A major advancement for the cryptocurrency industry as Strategy joins the S&P 500?

If successful, Strategy will become the second cryptocurrency company to join the S&P 500 this year, after Coinbase in May. This is clear evidence of the increasing acceptance of the cryptocurrency sector in the traditional financial market.

Meryem Habibi, Revenue Director at Bitpace, commented: “This confirms the legitimacy of an entirely new asset class.”

Previously, Strategy was listed in the Nasdaq-100 at the end of 2024. Joining the S&P 500 will elevate the company's prestige to a new level, while also proving the success of Michael Saylor's bold Bitcoin investment strategy.

Conclusion: The short-term race is coming to an end

Time is counting down for Strategy and Bitcoin's opportunity to make history. The remainder of Q2 will be crucial to ensure Bitcoin's price maintains the necessary floor. Any fluctuations could change the balance, but with the current data, the likelihood of success leans towards Strategy. This is an important step for the cryptocurrency market on its path to global integration.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/microstrategy-va-sp-500-dinh-gia-btc/

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