After dropping to $98,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin showed a strong recovery on Tuesday, regaining the $105,000 level with a 3.86% increase.

The main reason for this increase was the announcement by former US President Donald Trump that a ceasefire had been established between Israel and Iran. Trump described the tension in the region as a '12-Day War'.

According to Trump's statement, Israel also responded to the 12-hour ceasefire initiated by Iran. These mutual moves were seen as a coordinated step towards reducing tensions in the region. The developments following the US air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities initially created selling pressure in the markets. However, Iran informing the US before the attack and the absence of casualties significantly reduced the perception of geopolitical risk.

With the renewed risk appetite, major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP also rose, led by Bitcoin. As the positive sentiment in the market quickly spreads, BTC regaining its critical support level has caught investors' attention. Analysts predict that if this positive sentiment continues, Bitcoin could initiate another upward movement towards $120,000 in the short term.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Critical Resistances at $120,000 Target

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's potential to continue its upward trend looks strong. On the 4-hour chart, BTC managed to break the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $103,954 and the horizontal resistance level at $104,723. Currently, it is approaching the descending trend line around $106,500, where buyers have struggled since the beginning of June.

If Bitcoin can surpass this resistance, short-term targets of $109,041 and $110,522 come to the forefront.

Current Price: $105,209

Market Capitalization: $2.09 Trillion

24-Hour Trading Volume: $67.5 Billion

Main Support: $98,253

Resistance Levels: $106,539 – $109,041 – $110,522

Momentum indicators are also signaling positively. The MACD indicator made a bullish crossover, and the histogram bars are strengthening. Additionally, the price has risen above the previous low level, forming a 'higher low' formation, and no bearish candlestick formations are observed in resistance areas.

If the $106,500 resistance is broken upwards and trading volume increases, the path for Bitcoin to rise to $120,000 will technically be opened.

Fed Policy and Geopolitical Factors Support Bitcoin

In addition to technical indicators, macroeconomic and geopolitical developments also support Bitcoin's rise. The recent dovish statements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the increasing expectations of interest rate cuts weaken the dollar while making Bitcoin an attractive alternative against inflation.

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of an interest rate cut in September was 70% last week, and it has now risen to 80%.

Additionally, investors view Bitcoin as a safe haven against geopolitical risks. The continuation of the ceasefire in the Middle East and the US's easing of macro policy are accelerating capital flows into instruments that have low correlation with traditional assets like Bitcoin.


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