Behind the missile streaking through the night sky, the dark language of great power games is quietly transmitted through secret channels.

“We do not know how to trust them anymore. What they have done is essentially a betrayal of diplomacy.” Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif angrily accused the U.S. after the airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, implying that Washington might have used negotiations to cover for the Israeli strikes. However, dramatically, CNN revealed that the U.S. actually informed Iran in advance through secret channels that the range of attacks would be 'controlled' and that there would be no similar actions in the future.

More intriguingly, when Iran subsequently launched missile strikes on the U.S. military base in Qatar's Al Udeid, the timing of the attack closely coincided with the timeline of Trump announcing a ceasefire — shortly after the missiles fell, Trump immediately announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full ceasefire. Both sides seemingly completed a dangerous duet through a 'secret script.'

Secret signals in war games, a familiar script in the cryptocurrency realm.

When the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran's Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow nuclear facilities, the streets of Tehran were unusually quiet. An Iranian woman using the pseudonym Sarah confided to the media: “My days and nights have become indistinguishable, I feel paralyzed, only able to stare blankly at the ceiling all day and night.” Panic spread like a virus, with citizens speculating whether the destruction of nuclear facilities would lead to radiation leaks.

However, the reality is that Iran's high-level officials had already learned the details of the airstrikes through secret channels. According to CNN, two informed sources revealed that the U.S. conveyed to Iran through secret channels that the range of airstrikes would be controlled and that there would be no similar actions in the future. This 'early warning' gave Iran ample time to relocate nuclear materials — Russian news agency Sputnik confirmed that Iran had already transferred enriched nuclear materials to safe locations before the U.S. airstrikes.

The angry statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif reveals a deeper game: “They may already have this plan, they just need negotiations to provide cover. We do not know how to trust them anymore.” The precise strikes under diplomatic cover resemble the operations of market makers releasing beneficial news while secretly offloading.

When Iran launched a 'retaliatory' strike on the U.S. military base in Qatar 24 hours later, the base had already evacuated personnel and equipment in advance, and the missiles 'hit nothing.' This tacit 'performative counterattack' is reminiscent of project parties cooperating with market makers to create false breakouts.

Funds flowing in panic, cryptocurrencies become a new channel for hedging.

Beneath the surface of missile exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, the wealth of the Iranian people is undergoing a silent transfer. An Iranian man at the border emphasized to reporters: “I do not support a regime change imposed by external forces. We were originally pushing for internal reforms.” The intertwining of public distrust in the government and concerns about the country being isolated has fostered a strong demand for asset hedging.

Hard currency choices under the collapse of fiat currency system: The Iranian Rial has plummeted 60% in black market exchange rates over the past year, and public confidence in the banking system has dropped to freezing point. A citizen using the pseudonym Farhad candidly stated: “The nuclear facilities like Fordow and Natanz are a microcosm of the entire nuclear program, the product of years of cutthroat investment by the state” — dissatisfaction with the government's high-cost nuclear projects has transformed into a desire for decentralized assets.

Underground channels for cross-border capital: When U.S. sanctions cut off Iran's international banking channels, Bitcoin OTC trading volumes surged in Tehran's free market. Data from blockchain analysis company Chainalysis shows that the trading volume of the Rial on the Iranian OTC crypto trading platform LocalBitcoins increased by 320% during the week of the airstrikes. The ability of cryptocurrencies to bypass traditional financial blockades makes them the perfect tool for capital flight from the Middle East.

Institutional players' hedging strategies: Global macro hedge funds had already positioned themselves in Bitcoin before the airstrikes. Jeff Currie, head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, revealed: “Wall Street is viewing cryptocurrencies as a geopolitical hedging tool, similar to the Swiss Franc in the 1990s.” BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net inflow for 14 consecutive days during the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, accumulating over $2.4 billion.

Historical scripts replay, the rules of the crypto market in geopolitical crises.

Looking back at the January 2020 U.S. assassination of Soleimani, Bitcoin surged 12% within 72 hours of the news being announced. During the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin exhibited stronger safe-haven properties — after news of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities broke, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 6% within an hour, while gold only rose by 1.2%.

More noteworthy is the deep market changes:

Institutional participation surged: In 2020, the total open interest in cryptocurrency derivatives was less than $10 billion, while during this crisis, the open interest in CME Bitcoin futures alone reached $11.8 billion. The deep participation of professional investors has enhanced the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional safe-haven assets.

Undercurrents of capital in the Middle East: Data from Dubai-based cryptocurrency exchange BitOasis shows that the number of registered users in the Middle East surged by 45% in a single week after the outbreak of conflict. The number of Bitcoin mining machines indirectly held by the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund through its European subsidiaries has quietly tripled in the past six months.

Technical and news resonance: When Iranian missiles flew toward the U.S. military base, Bitcoin was at a critical support level. On-chain data shows that a whale placed an order to buy 5,000 Bitcoins at the $58,000 level, perfectly timing the technical window of the geopolitical event.

History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme: When Saudi oil fields were attacked in 2019, Bitcoin rose over 10% in a single day; on the day the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022, Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels. Geopolitical crises are becoming catalysts for cryptocurrencies to break out of consolidation.

It is particularly noteworthy to see the real choices of the Iranian people: As the government strictly controls information through internet censorship, a woman using the pseudonym Mehri transferred her assets to Turkey through the Bitcoin network. She admitted: “This sentiment actually gave me a kind of clarity — it reminded me that I am closely connected to something beyond the individual.” This precisely reveals the core value of cryptocurrency in extreme environments — a wealth carrier that cannot be frozen by sovereign entities.

Blockchain analysis company Chainalysis tracked a set of unusual data: 24 hours before the Iranian missile strikes on the U.S. military base, a massive buy order of 1,000 Bitcoins was distributed across 20 global exchanges. During the same period, the Qatari sovereign fund reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by 11%.

Astute investors have already sensed the shift: When Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif accused the U.S. of 'betraying diplomacy,' he might have been hinting that in the game of great powers, cryptocurrency has become an uncontrollable variable. Just like GPS-guided missiles changed battlefield rules during the Iraq War, blockchain technology is reconstructing the underlying logic of global capital flows.

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