Capital withdrawal has ended, BTC violently rebounds by nearly 10%! Is this rebound a trap or a starting point?

Just when many thought it would drop below 95,000, BTC pulled up a big bullish candle at 98,115.4, successfully standing back at the key watershed area of 104,000.

A wave of 'V-shaped reversal' caught the bears off guard, but is this really a signal of the return of the bull market, or the beginning of a new round of harvesting by the main forces?

This article will break down from three dimensions: technical charts, MACD momentum, and on-chain capital inflow.

1. Technical Aspect: Key Watershed Reconfirmed, MACD Releases Positive Signals

From the chart, it can be seen that BTC previously formed a top structure near 111,959.5, and then entered a phase of correction, with a minimum dip to 98,115.4, breaking below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, almost touching the 23.6% support zone.

This round of correction corresponds to capital withdrawal, which has been clearly reflected through the MACD bottom divergence. The red bars have shortened, and the yellow and white lines have formed a 'golden cross', indicating that bullish funds are flowing back in the short term.

The current price has returned above the key watershed area, and if it can maintain stability, it is expected to challenge the 110,000 resistance level again.

2. News Aspect: Institutions Increasing Positions, Rate Cut Expectations Boost Market Recovery

According to the latest data from on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode:

The BTC capital flow between Coinbase and Binance shows that exchanges with US capital backgrounds are starting to see net inflows.

In terms of ETF holdings, Grayscale and BlackRock slightly increased their positions this week, indicating that institutions have not given up on the willingness to increase their holdings at high levels.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting hinted at 'a possible rate cut window within the year', boosting market risk appetite.

In addition, the strengthening of the AI and digital economy sectors has reduced the capital diversion pressure on crypto assets, further reinforcing BTC's logic as a 'safe haven among risk assets'.

Next stop 110,000, or a rise and fall?

I will continue to track this wave of market movement and publish real trading strategies and entry-exit timing analysis.

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