Millions earned from recent wars:
1- The First Gulf War (1990–1991)
Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, leading to a sharp increase in oil prices. Global markets panicked.
Many large investors, including Soros, understood that the US would intervene militarily and that the war would not last long. They initially profited from the rising oil prices, then made millions by shorting oil when prices fell.
They made millions from sales in oil futures and currency markets.
2 - Assassination of an Iranian general (January 2020):
On January 3, the US killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. Oil prices surged overnight.
Some traders bought call options in energy and defense companies like Raytheon (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). These options generated profits ranging from $200,000 to $2 million in a single day.
3 - Russia-Ukraine War (2022):
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Markets fell, while oil and defense stocks rose.
Those who bought energy companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and defense stocks like General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman in advance made millions. Famous investor David Einhorn anticipated the global food crisis due to port closures and invested in fertilizer and agricultural companies. Stocks rose by 100% in a few weeks. Some hedge funds made hundreds of millions of dollars.
4 - Israel-Hamas Conflict (October 2023)
Hamas's sudden attack on Israel increased tensions in the region. Large traders bought oil options, gold futures, and defense ETFs like ITA. Oil and gold prices surged, and defense stocks jumped. Within a few days, option prices increased by 200-300%, leading to significant profits.
Generally, during short-term wars and geopolitical tensions, option trading is considered superior to stocks for quick and large profits — but it is riskier.
Why can options be more advantageous in short-term wars?
1- Volatility increases → Option prices (especially call/put) surge.
2- You can choose the direction with options, meaning you can profit from both falling and rising prices.
For example:
When war starts, buying puts from non-oil and non-military sectors leads to profits from the decline.
You can profit from call options in the defense and oil sectors.
3 - Price changes in options can be 10x or sometimes more compared to stocks, which means high profits in a short time.
For example:
In January 2020, when the US killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, RTX stock rose by +20% in 15 days post-war, while RTX call options surged by over 350% during that period.
In short-term wars, option trading risk is minimized because if the war is in an oil-producing country, oil and weapons company stocks will rise. If it is not an oil country, we need to examine what that country exports the most.
However, there are 3 main things to keep in mind during such critical times:
1- Option trading requires professional planning and risk management.
2- If you make the wrong choice, the option could be worth $0.
3- Ideal for short-term profits, but it’s not gambling!
Now let's discuss the ongoing and likely short-term Iran-Israel War.
Everyone knows which sectors both countries are in the global market. Accordingly, expected market reactions when the market opens on the first day will be approximately as follows:
1- Oil and gas prices will rise (already rising)
2 - Defense industry stocks will rise (already rising)
3 - S&P 500, Nasdaq are falling (slightly)
4 - Gold prices will rise (already rising) (safe haven)
Short option strategies are approximately like this (also applied to stocks)
1- Defense industry stocks are rising (Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC) - companies have a 150-200% probability of Call Options (1-2 weeks) rising - stocks can also rise by 10-15%)
3- The same scenario can be applied to energy (oil-gas) sector companies like ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
The person who earned the most from war in financial history is Nathan Rothschild – the Battle of Waterloo (1815).
He received the news about Napoleon's defeat in London before anyone else. To create panic in London, he spread rumors that Napoleon was coming back and sold his bonds. Everyone panicked and started selling – prices fell. Rothschild secretly bought the bonds back at a low price. A few hours later, when official news came out, bond prices rapidly rose, and he made billions of dollars in today’s money within a week. This is considered the most profitable operation in financial markets during wartime in history.
It is possible to make money from options and stock trading during short-term wars, but only if you react quickly and smartly.
Individual investors in the US prepare a checklist for rapid trading during wartime to avoid missing opportunities.
The checklist includes approximately the following questions:
1- Is the news official and verified, or is it just a rumor?
2- How local or global is the impact of the event?
3- Are the markets open, or are they still not open?
4- Is there enough balance in the account?
5- Have I estimated the strike price and expiry date in advance? (Option trading)
6- Am I free from panic and FOMO + am I loyal to the system?
FOMO - Fear of Missing Out - the fear of missing the opportunity
7- Am I diversifying the portfolio?
8- When the income reaches 2-3 times, partially sell (partial sell)
9- Exit the market 2-3 days after the event, as a correction will come.
10- The best opportunities arise within the first 12-24 hours.
Great profit opportunities are possible not only by following the news but also through fast and smart decisions. War periods are opportunity times for planned investors, not panic! $BTC