—— A must-see life and death line for retail investors in 6 months
1. Bitcoin: ETF whales entering the market, is $130,000 just the starting point?
- Current situation: Bitcoin firmly holds above $100,000, ETF funds continue to flow in, and institutional holdings reach all-time highs (e.g., MicroStrategy holds 300,000 BTC).
- Prediction: If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it may hit $130,000 by the end of the year (+30%), but beware of regulatory black swans (e.g., sudden SEC inspections of exchanges in the U.S.).
- Risk: ETF funds being 'locked' leads to liquidity tightening; if large institutions sell off, it may trigger a flash crash.
2. Ethereum: Upgrade dividends vs. regulatory strangulation
- Positive news: Layer 2 expansion plans are being implemented; if the ETH spot ETF is approved, it may replicate the explosive logic of the Bitcoin ETF.
- Hidden concerns: The U.S. SEC may subject smart contract developers to regulation, and project teams could face legal liabilities (e.g., if the code is used for fraud).
- Price range: If it breaks critical resistance, it may reach $8,000 by year-end; otherwise, it might fall back to the $5,000 support level.
3. Altcoins: 90% go to zero, will the remaining 10% make you rich?
- Harsh reality: The number of altcoins will surge to 12 million by 2025, but survival rate is below 4% (e.g., 870,000 MEME coins on Solana, only 3.7% survived 30 days).
- Opportunity window:
- Layer 2 tokens (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) benefit from the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem.
- Privacy coins (Monero, Zcash) face regulatory pressure, but dark web demand persists.
- Death warning:
- Dog projects without white papers, Telegram groups for pumping, have extremely high risk of exit scams.
- Exchange delisting wave (e.g., Binance regularly cleans up low liquidity tokens).
4. Regulatory storm: The sword of Damocles of account freezes and leveraged liquidation
- Global trend:
- The U.S. cracks down on privacy coins, exchanges delist XMR and ZEC.
- Hong Kong licensing pilot, but mainland policies still prohibit trading (risk of capital outflow).
- Retail survival rule:
- Prohibit high leverage: Small platforms frequently face liquidation, causing capital to evaporate instantly.
- Decentralized storage: Keep BTC in cold wallets; only keep short-term funds on exchanges.
5. Ultimate strategy: How to bet on the second half of 2025?
- Conservatives: 80% BTC + 20% ETH, dollar-cost averaging into ETFs on dips.
- Adventurers: 5% position to target altcoins (only select open-source code + real community projects).
- Risky behavior: All in on Dogecoin, following leveraged contracts, ignoring policy warnings.
Conclusion: The second half of 2025 will be an era of 'institutions eating meat, retail investors drinking soup.' Bitcoin remains the safest choice, and altcoins should be approached with a 'zero mindset.' Remember—make paper gains in a bull market, make coin gains in a bear market; surviving until 2026 is the real win.
(Data as of June 2025; dynamic regulation may change market trends)
🔥 Forward reminder: Your friends might be going all in on air coins!
