Is the ETF good news actually poison? ARK bottom-fishing signal vs Mt.Gox's thousand coins dumping
In a volatile range, bulls and bears are at odds, breaking the track determines life and death - Better to miss than to make a mistake.
Triangular convergence direction selection
Upper track pressure wall: $2523
Middle track lifeline: $2345
The main force tests pressure with the good news of BlackRock updating the ETF application, but the compensation expectations from Mt.Gox in May suppress the breakout momentum. The BOLL channel has narrowed to the narrowest since July, and volatility falling below 40 indicates a change in trend is imminent.
MACD dark thunder
Red momentum bar shrinks to 21.3, DIF and DEA flatten below -15, forming a “false golden cross trap.” If the 4-hour level fails to stand above the zero axis, it will replicate a 10% drop on April 25th.
Layered solution
1. Cost above 2500
Reduce positions by 60% in the 2520-2530 area
Stop loss immediately if it breaks below 2500
2. Cost between 2350-2500
Open shorts to hedge when breaking 2340 middle track
Replenish positions if it drops sharply to 2250
3. Cost at 2300
Take profit in batches above 2325
Dynamic stop loss if it breaks below 2270
Watchlist life and death line
Bull's coffin nail: 2340, if lost, turns bearish
Breakthrough beacon tower: 2530, if stable, look at 2680
MACD turning point: Only confirmed real reversal when both lines cross above the zero axis
Latest news variables
Good news: ARK 21Shares submits ETH spot ETF amendment
Bad news: Deribit Ethereum options' maximum pain point shifts down to 2200
It's not uncommon for the main force to offload amid good news:
Insufficient volume in the rise to 2520 → Take profit priority MAX
Break below 2340 with no volume in the rebound → Cut loss must race
Remember the lesson of a 15% drop after the ETF approval in January 2024: Good news becomes bad news immediately.
K-line is an illusion, stop-loss orders are insurance - Have you set up your digital guardrails?
Reject blind surfing! Follow Brother Sheng closely, hit follow, and dig for the next batch of value growth benchmarks, limited core insider seats!
