This passage is too realistic:

The illusion of hindsight in human nature is very strong.

If one is not beaten up by the real world for twenty or thirty years, and if one does not seriously review the various mistakes made step by step in writing, one may sincerely and frivolously misjudge that one can easily seize the opportunity of a tenfold or hundredfold stock in the future.

But when the actual opportunity comes, either it cannot be seized; or if it is seized, one makes a little money and then runs; or one is tempted by false opportunities, starts making a little money, and then quickly falls into a big pit, losing even more.

This implies a complex reflection on human misjudgment, self-awareness, investment psychology, historical analogy, and the evolution of knowledge—

1. The greatest investment illusion is thinking that "the current me" can make "the godly operation of the future."

2. Opportunities are not seized by intuition; they are expanded inch by inch through the boundaries of understanding.

3. If one cannot honestly review the foolishness of the past, one cannot truly understand the difficulties of the future.

4. Reflection is not about reviewing results, but about training how to make judgments in the present with less emotional influence.

5. To navigate through cycles, one must first find information that others do not look at but one can understand—this is the source of alpha.