Ethereum has been oscillating between $2350 and $2850 for the past 42 days, as if the market is holding back like a bomb waiting to explode. The price has tried several times to touch $2850 but failed to break through. How it moves next is crucial and directly related to whether the bull market can continue.

The key lies in two prices:

If it can truly break through and hold above $2850, it is likely to start a significant rise, targeting around the historical high of $4100. Why such a surge? Because there is a massive amount of short positions in the market, and once the price breaks above, these shorts will be forced to cover their positions, which will push the price even higher like 'fuel'.

Conversely, if the support level of $2350 is effectively broken, it becomes quite dangerous. The price may continue to fall, first looking at $2200, and it could even test the psychological level of $2000, giving the shorts an opportunity to push back.

History sometimes tends to repeat itself. The current trend looks very similar to January 2024, when Ethereum was also consolidating for a while before suddenly surging to $4000. If history were to repeat this time, we might see a significant rise within a few weeks.

However, the big players in the market are also engaged in intense battles. The large whale shorts mentioned earlier are holding huge losses but refuse to back down, indicating that the bearish sentiment in the market is also considerable. But if the price truly breaks $2850, they might not be able to hold on and would be forced to cover, which would accelerate the rise. Of course, if they stubbornly hold or coordinate a sell-off, it will also create pressure on the price in the short term.

Currently, the overall market atmosphere is somewhat contradictory: the price has dropped about 4% in the short term and is hovering around $2400, feeling a bit weak. But on the other hand, institutional money investing in Ethereum ETFs has been net inflowing for 17 consecutive days, indicating that institutional funds are still entering the market, and the open contracts in the market have also hit new highs, showing that the interest is actually not low.

Therefore, the next things to closely monitor are:

Can the ceiling of $2850 be broken? This will determine whether the bull market can be reignited.

Will the floor of $2350 be broken? This will determine whether the shorts will gain the upper hand.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actions of the 'big whales' in the market are key variables affecting short-term trends.