Core Logic: How do geopolitical messages direct this forced short play?
Truth Behind the Surge: The Middle East powder keg ignites the crypto market
In the early hours of June 24, ETH suddenly surged 8% to break through $2500, with the fundamental driving force being the expectation difference from the Middle East situation. Clues can be seen from trading data:
Main Order Wall: Over 20,000 ETH concentrated buy orders appeared in the 2300-2400 range, with the big players building a defense line in advance. Shorts faced a brutal liquidation: large short positions were forcibly closed in the 2150-2100 range (see 'Large Transactions' column in the chart), with total liquidations exceeding $300 million;
Timeline Mystery: The ceasefire agreement was announced at 6:04, and ETH had already surged to 2500! The real rally happened before the announcement!
Key Deduction: What if the ceasefire news was leaked in advance...
Assuming the ceasefire agreement was announced the previous day (6.23) at 18:00, how would the market evolve?
Shorts will not heavily bet: Geopolitical risks dissipate, no one bets on 'war black swan';
Big players lose the excuse to force shorts: The support for panic selling in the area of 2398 in the chart is lost;
Technical suppression is evident: The volume of sell orders above 2450 increases sharply (see the top data in chart 2), lacking momentum it cannot break through!
Conclusion: ETH is likely to oscillate and retreat below 2400, and 2500 is just a fantasy bubble!
The perfect trap of big players: The deadly resonance between news and the order book
This surge is essentially a 'harvesting of expectation differences':
Time Difference Strategy: Big players use the tension in the Middle East to lure shorts → Accumulate at low prices → Sell back after the ceasefire is announced;
Data Verification: The commission ratio is only +0.05%, yet it surged violently, proving that the bulls are extremely concentrated in control;
Liquidation Engine: Shorts were forced to close positions in the 2300-2400 range, automatically pushing up the coin price (see the 'Liquidation' area in the chart)!
#加密市场反弹
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