📉 The Fed is Winking — They Might Lower Rates as Early as July
An important signal from the top of the monetary authority: Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, acknowledged the possibility of a rate cut — already at the July meeting, if inflation remains under control.
🔑 Key points from her speech:
— The labor market shows signs of weakening, although it formally remains resilient
— The Middle East could provoke a rise in commodity prices
— New tariffs are a weak inflation factor
— International trade is stabilizing — this reduces uncertainty
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: "If inflationary pressure remains subdued,
it may be considered to lower the rate in July"
— Stock market: gets a hint of support — growth stocks are reviving
— Crypto: rate down = weak dollar = strong BTC
— Investors: can already price in a dovish turn from the Fed
⚠️ But this is not a turnaround yet — it’s verbal reconnaissance at battle. The Fed will look at fresh data on inflation, employment, and geopolitics (especially against the backdrop of strikes on Iran).
The July Fed meeting could become a historical point —
from where those same multiples will rise again.
If, of course, inflation doesn't play in the opposite direction.
