Feeling the tension? The #bitcoin is oscillating between 100 K $ and 110 K $, ready to explode or collapse: dare to enter or regret staying on the sidelines.
1. Fundamental pillars
Supply fixed at 21 M of $BTC , with only 19.87 M already in circulation (< 10% remaining), annual inflation < 1% post-halving in April 2024, reinforcing its deflationary nature.
88% of $BTC in profit (break-even price < current price), few panic sellers on the horizon.
Massive institutional supply: nearly 100 billion $ unlocked via spot ETFs (BlackRock iShares IBIT holds 16.3 billion $), 240 companies in cash reserve, and 3.6 billion $ injected by SoftBank–Tether–Cantor Fitzgerald in early 2025.
2. Macro & on-chain tailwind
ECB, BoE, and Fed are moving towards easing: rates down and DXY at a 3-year low, ideal conditions for risky assets like $BTC .
70% of the supply has not moved for > 6 months, evidence of whales' conviction; transfers of + 1 M $ up since June.
3. Technical dissection
Daily: new high at ~ 110,295 $ mid-June, golden cross EMA50/200 and price above long-term EMA200; RSI dropped back to 40–45 signals a healthy correction.
4 H: descending triangle with EMA20/21 as dynamic resistance and support at 100–104 k$; negative MACD and RSI in oversold territory.
Patterns: validated cup-handle aiming for 112–115 k$; possible local double bottom around 99 k$, forming a bullish W.
4. Strategic frontiers
Key supports: 100 k$ (psychological) and zone 95–97 k$ (fibo retracements 0.382-0.5).
Ultimate net: 88 k$ (fib 0.618) – breaking below this threshold would break the bullish cycle.
Resistances: close > 106 k$ to trigger FOMO, then 110–111 k$ (top of range); possible extension to 114–115 k$ if bullish momentum.
5. 7-day scenarios
Bullish: defense at 100 k$ and rebound, breakout at 106 k$ with volume, rally 108–110 k$ (+5–10%), extension 112–115 k$ if catalyst (geopolitical or new ETF).
Bearish: drop below 100 k$, test 95–97 k$ then 90 k$ and 88 k$ (-10–12%) for a healthy but risky consolidation.
6. Action plan: act before the wave
Dip entry: accumulate between 100–95 k$, add at 93 k$ if the decline continues.
Confirmation: daily close > 106 k$ on strong volume to minimize the risk of catching a falling knife.
Stop-loss: below 87 k$ to protect your capital.
Take profit: take some at 107–110 k$; aim for 114–115 k$ with a trailing stop as soon as the price goes above 110 k$.
Don't just watch: place your orders while fear and excitement intersect. Leave indecision to others; take a position, or suffer the angst of missed FOMO. The next Bitcoin wake-up call could be your ticket—but only if you dare to click.