On-chain analysis: Bitcoin is overbought.
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio is at its highest level in a year, indicating a significant gap between the network's valuation and actual transactional activity. Historically, such values of this indicator have preceded market corrections.
Last week, NVT decreased slightly under the influence of external factors; however, the overall trend indicates Bitcoin is overbought. Historical patterns show that after such accumulation periods, corrections often follow.
The funding rate on the Bitcoin futures market remains positive. This means that traders with long positions are paying a premium to holders of short positions. Typically, this indicates prevailing bullish sentiment, as investors are willing to pay an additional fee in anticipation of price increases.
The liquidation map shows that a price drop to $92,000 could trigger liquidations of long positions totaling over $1.17 billion. With such volume, it will be very difficult to maintain key support levels.
Technical analysis: BTC is under selling pressure.
The last two months have seen a bearish pattern forming on the charts, confirming increasing selling pressure. The price is currently holding above the psychologically important level of $100,000, but a break of this level would confirm the bearish scenario.
If it falls below $98,000, a correction to $92,000 is likely, which would represent a 9% decline. Such movement could trigger a new wave of selling and worsen Bitcoin's short-term outlook. However, if market conditions improve and the price consolidates above $100,000, a trend reversal is possible. The key level for bulls is $102,734. Breaking through this level would open the way to $105,000, which would negate the current bearish scenario.
