Solana (SOL) has a 30% risk of a 30% crash below $100 if the $2.5B network exits. Key support breaking at $126 - will SOL recover or crash further?
Solana is trading at $134 today, June 23, with a price that has seen extreme volatility over a 24-hour period that has seen it fluctuate between a daily low of $126 and a daily high of $135.
As market sentiment remains fearful over the Israel-Iran conflict, a bearish rounding-top pattern has emerged amid network falls, indicating that Solana's price could drop as much as 30 percent to below $100.
Solana price risk is 30% amid a rounding top breakdown.
Solana has formed a rounding top pattern on the one-day chart. This pattern usually indicates that the price is about to reverse bearish after the bullish move that pushed the SOL price below $100 in April before losing power at the May 23 swing high of $187.
The bearish setup indicates that the Solana price topped out in May, and as sellers have been gradually selling $SOL in recent weeks, while buying pressure has remained weak, a gradual downtrend has emerged. The key support level for this pattern is now at $126, which SOL tested after a massive crypto market liquidation crash on June 22.
If Solana is unable to defend the $126 support, it will confirm the bearish reversal described in the rounding top. In that case, the price could fall 32% to $85, such a downtrend represents the high of this pattern.
The rising ADX line indicates that the current downtrend is strengthening, supporting the bearish thesis that Solana's price may lose the neck support. This is further supported by the MACD, which has fallen into negative territory, confirming that the bearish momentum continues.
If Solana price can reclaim the upper level of this Rounding Top pattern at $187, then this bearish thesis will be invalidated, and $SOL can go back into consolidation or break above the psychological level of $200.
On-chain signals also warn of SOL crashes.
In addition to the technical structure outlining the bearish Solana price prediction, network activity is also decreasing, leading to weaker utility and demand for the SOL token.
Data from DeFiLlama shows that in less than two months, the total market cap of stablecoins on the Solana blockchain has decreased from 13.137 billion to 10.638 billion.
In addition to the $2.5 billion drop in market cap within seven weeks, the number of DeFi users on the network has also declined from a peak of 6 million on June 2 to 2.95 million at press time.
As long as network activity decreases, the price of SOL may not reach $200 anytime soon.
This decline could force the bulls to lose the support level at $126, leading to a crash below $100.
This is because since users demand fewer $SOL tokens to handle transactions on the blockchain, while spot buying volumes are lower, there will be fewer traders to absorb the sold coins.
However, if Bitcoin rebounds and Solana regains $187, then the bearish pattern will be invalidated, opening the door for a rally towards $200.
In summary, Solana's price is testing key neckline support at $126 amid the formation of a rounded top pattern.
If the price breaks below this support, SOL could see a 30% crash below $100. Network activity continues to decline as the number of addresses and stablecoins returned to the blockchain decreases.
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