How long can the ETH black swan last?

I vaguely remember that the last time Mr. Chen shorted Ethereum at 2645, anticipating a black swan occurrence, with a stop loss at 2666, it reached a high of 2680, and then directly plummeted to 2550.

This is currently the only stop loss this month, losing 20 points, but all the subsequent trades went smoothly.

Moreover, Mr. Chen repeatedly reminded about the two black swans because the leverage on Ethereum is too high. As a major player, he prefers friends who engage in leveraged long trading, which is the first reason.

The second reason is that the market itself lacks liquidity, and funds are heavily concentrated on BTC.

After Ethereum's upgrade, it rallied all the way from the bottom to above 2500, even reaching around 2800, which is also the quarterly resistance level mentioned by Mr. Chen. Therefore, he continuously shorted in between.

In comparison, this time Ethereum consumed the previous long positions that peaked at 2800, and what remains is just chasing the longs. When Mr. Chen shorted at 2550 and saw 2150, he had already clearly defined the black swan.

He just didn't predict that the lowest point last night would hit 2160, where the long position bottom was executed. Although it eventually fell to around 2110, this long position had a small size and a relatively high stop loss. Therefore, the long position reached 2260 this morning. Recently, Mr. Chen has been in the hospital, making updates inconvenient.

However, fans who needed to flip their positions still managed to do so.

This fan has only been in the industry for a month, trading chaotically with others and losing 6500 USD.

The plan was to exit the market, but fortunately, they stumbled upon Mr. Chen's blog, reviewed all articles, and found that Mr. Chen has a very high accuracy in position control. They decided to try entering the market with 200 USD, and as a result, today the total reached around 11800 USD. During this process, every time they flipped positions, they would withdraw 500-1000 USD as living expenses.

Of course, because Mr. Chen spends most of his time on analysis, he hasn't opened an account like others. However, this fan has been following Mr. Chen's strategy, and currently has not made a single mistake, turning 200 USD into 11800 USD.