Trading firm QCP Capital published a new analytical report that details the sharp drop of Bitcoin below the psychologically important mark of $100,000 and the subsequent recovery of the price against the backdrop of geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
Bitcoin falls below $100,000
On June 22, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since May 8, reaching a low of $98,200—a decline of 6%. This was the lowest point since surpassing the psychological level of $100,000 in May of this year.
4-hour BTC/USDT chart. Source: Cryptovizor cryptocurrency screener
The sell-off affected not only the flagship cryptocurrency but also major altcoins. The catalyst was Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a strategically important route for global oil supplies.
The recovery of Bitcoin above $100,000 on the morning of June 23 indicates that the weekend was a result of macroeconomic factors. Investors viewed cryptocurrencies as a safe-haven asset in anticipation of the opening of futures trading on stocks.
Liquidations exceeded $1 billion
The price movement intensified due to low liquidity, resulting in liquidations of positions totaling over $1 billion across the entire cryptocurrency market. Thin weekend trading conditions created the perfect environment for sharp fluctuations.
Analysts at QCP Capital note that despite the threats of retaliation from Iran, markets are reducing the probability of a serious escalation of the conflict. The U.S. is applying diplomatic pressure on China to contain Tehran, and these behind-the-scenes geopolitical negotiations have a calming effect.
Traditional markets mirror cryptocurrencies
A similar dynamic is observed in traditional markets. U.S. futures on stocks, oil, and gold initially reacted to the news but then returned to Friday's levels. This indicates that investors interpret the situation as a regional spike in tension rather than a global risk event.
Options remain expensive until September, but a strong rebound in spot prices and a contraction in volatility in the near term signal that investors are largely ignoring the risks of a broader crisis.
Key events of the week
QCP Capital highlights several important macroeconomic events that could impact the markets:
Monday (June 23): U.S. PMI business activity index data
Tuesday (June 24): Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Wednesday (June 25): Repeat speech by the Fed Chair
Thursday (June 26): U.S. GDP and unemployment data
Friday (June 27): Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index
Bitcoin is consolidating near the $100,000 level after the washout of leveraged long positions. This makes the next few trading sessions particularly important for determining the further direction.
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