President Vladimir Putin is running out of choices. After the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend, Tehran turned to Moscow for help. However, it seems that Iran has chosen the wrong moment to seek assistance.
According to CNBC, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Moscow last Monday to meet with Putin and conduct 'serious consultations' following attacks that U.S. President Donald Trump described as 'utterly destructive.'
Iran is seeking support. But Putin has almost nothing to exchange. Araghchi's visit is an effort to reclaim favor after Tehran supplied drones (UAVs) and weapons to Russia in the war in Ukraine. However, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, 'Putin probably can't do anything more than say a few words. He needs the stockpile for the ongoing war in Ukraine.' Russia's arsenal is depleted, the economy is in turmoil, and a shaky global position has led Moscow to dare only to maintain diplomatic silence.
Iran pleads, Russia remains silent.
Moscow's strategy currently maintains an absolute minimum. No military support, no commitments, not even condemnation of Israel or the United States. Russia only suggests that both sides 'negotiate for a peaceful resolution.' That's all.
The Kremlin understands that doing more would jeopardize relations with Washington, especially with Trump, who has a friendly relationship and admiration for Putin, back in the White House.
Schmieding warns that if Putin chooses Iran over maintaining diplomacy with Trump, the consequences could be severe, potentially leading to harsher sanctions or undermining Putin's position in other ways. It is clear that Putin is weighing that risk and deciding to stay out.
There is also a strategic gamble behind all of this. A Middle Eastern war could divert Western attention from Ukraine. Oil prices would soar, providing significant revenue for Russia. But the price to pay could outweigh the benefits. Iran is one of Russia's few allies in the region. If Tehran weakens significantly, Moscow will lose all the effort it has invested there: finances, influence, and future contracts.
Nikita Smagin from the Carnegie Moscow Center notes that Russia is still in a quandary. 'Russia has invested heavily in many projects in Iran over the past three years, all of which could collapse,' Smagin said. 'Moscow also hopes to benefit from Middle Eastern instability through rising oil prices and reduced interest in Ukraine.'
Billions of dollars are at stake, but there are no openings for action.
Economically, Russia faces significant risks. Just days before the airstrikes began, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow stated that Russia was Iran's largest foreign investor in 2024. Although there are no official figures, Smagin said that Russian investment in Iran last year reached $2.76 billion.
This year, Moscow plans to spend about $8 billion just on oil and gas projects. But all of that is now under threat. If Iran collapses under pressure, Russia will lose many years of economic effort and regional standing.
At home, the situation is even more dire. After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia became the most sanctioned country in the world. Nevertheless, the Kremlin has sustained its economy by ramping up oil exports to China and India, along with operating a 'shadow fleet' to evade Western maritime sanctions.
Official figures show that the Russian economy is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2024, higher than the UK (1.1%) and the US (2.8%). However, the growth is primarily driven by defense spending.
The ruble has surged, rising more than 40% this year according to Bank of America. On the surface, this looks solid. But domestically, inflation shows no signs of cooling down. Interest rates have jumped to 20%, and businesses are struggling to recruit labor.
Even the Russian Minister of Economy admitted last Thursday that the country is 'walking on the edge' of recession after the phenomenon of 'economic overheating.'
Thus, when Iran called for help, Putin chose to delay. He has burned through resources, been stretched thin, and witnessed an economy that is 'patched together with duct tape.' The war in Ukraine has scorched his reserves. And although Iran once helped Russia, Moscow now has nothing to repay.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/putin-het-tien-dien-tu-cuu-iran/
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