Three types of trends appearing in the current market!

First: After rushing to 115,000, we see a once-in-a-century peak, perfectly harvesting FOMO

This type of movement can be described as a "textbook-style" scheme to entice buyers. After BTC's recent pullback from its high, let's assume BTC breaks through its historical high and heads towards 115,000. Retail investors and institutions will FOMO into buying at the peak. Around 115,000 could be a good opportunity for the main players to offload their holdings. After retail investors chase the high, the main players will suddenly sell off, resulting in a major drop that directly wipes out the bulls, perfectly harvesting their investments.

Second: Breaking below 100,000 to entice short-sellers, then pulling back to a new high

This is a typical "washout + rally" tactic. BTC briefly drops below 100,000, creating an illusion of a breakdown to attract short-sellers to enter the market.

Retail investors panic and sell at a loss, while short-sellers gain confidence. However, the bulls suddenly make a move, violently pushing the price back up to the current level or even higher, causing the shorts to doubt their decisions. The advantage of this scenario is that it can eliminate weak positions in the market, paving the way for a surge to new historical highs.

Third: Breaking below 100,000 with a failed rebound, directly entering a bear market

This is the most pessimistic scenario and the "perfect peak" that many bears are hoping for. After BTC drops below 100,000, any rebound is weak, facing resistance and falling back down, then continuously making new lows, directly confirming a head-and-shoulders or double top pattern, marking the official start of a bear market.

Which scenario do you think has a higher probability?