GM🥯 Yesterday's events changed dramatically, how is everyone's position? Recently, there are many international events and market figures to pay attention to. Here’s the #Bail Monday Report, let’s get ready together!

[Conclusion First]

  1. With the involvement of the United States, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated. The intensification of geopolitical warfare will exacerbate price fluctuations in oil and natural gas, increasing the likelihood of renewed inflation.

  2. The U.S. will announce GDP this Thursday (06/26) and core PCE data this Friday (06/27). The market forecasts for no interest rate cut in July are not significantly divergent, with the main focus on whether there will be an interest rate cut in September.

  3. $BTC The upper pressure levels are at $104,000～$105,000 and $110,000, while the lower levels are at $92,000～$94,000 and $83,000～$85,000.

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[Detailed content here⬇️]

  • Yesterday (06/22), the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. This strait controls 20% of the world's oil and natural gas exports, and a long-term blockade would significantly impact the global economy and further raise raw material costs, leading to renewed inflation.

  • The U.S. will announce GDP this Thursday (06/26) and core PCE data this Friday (06/27). The market estimates an 85.5% probability of no interest rate cut in July, with the main focus on whether the relevant economic data supports the first interest rate cut in September. Currently, the market estimates a 59% probability of an interest rate cut in September.

  • Sosovalue data shows that the current fear and greed index has returned to neutral. The market cap of stablecoins continues to grow, $BTC ETF holdings are showing a decreasing trend in capital momentum. Bitfinex's long leverage has ended a two-month net outflow and has begun to show slow accumulation. Option volatility has significantly increased due to the war; the ∆25 Skew data has shifted from neutral to bearish.

  • $BTC With the Iraq war and U.S. intervention, continuous liquidation of bullish liquidity has been completed, and the current price is close to the POC since November 2024 and the VAL since the rise in April 2025. The prices to pay attention to later are the upper resistance levels at $104,000～$105,000 and $110,000, and the lower levels at $92,000～$94,000 and $83,000～$85,000.