🔹 4H frame – Short term:
Trend: Clearly bearish – broke support at $102,000.
Current situation: Price bounced from the bottom of $98,000 but recovery is weak.
Near resistance: $101,800–$102,200.
High possibility: BTC continues to decline if it does not surpass $102,000 → Target: $96,000.
Strategy: Wait to sell at 101,800–102,200. Stop loss >104,000.
🔹 D1 frame – Medium term:
Trend: Broken bullish structure, candle closes breaking the bottom of the sideway zone.
Strong bearish signal: Breakout below 102,000 + large red candle.
Next support: $96,000 then $92,000.
High probability: BTC continues to decline in the next few days if it does not recover strongly above $104,000.
🔹 Trend summary and suggested strategy
📉 Main scenario (high probability ~70%):
BTC continues to decline to the $96,000 - $94,000 zone, may test deeper if it breaks this zone.
Recommendation: Wait to sell when the price recovers to the $102,000 - $104,000 zone, cut loss above $106,000.
📈 Secondary scenario (low probability ~30%):
If there is positive supporting news (ETF, Fed policy, etc.) that pushes the price back above $104,000, BTC may return to the old peak zone.
In that case, the strategy is to stay on the sidelines and wait for a clear breakout confirmation to enter later.
Disclamer: This article is for reference only and does not encourage investment.
