Federal Reserve's July Interest Rate Direction Revealed: Maintain or Cut Rates? Latest Data Shocks!

In the ever-changing financial market, every policy signal affects the nerves of global investors. Recently, speculation and discussion about the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision have been intense, and the release of the latest authoritative data undoubtedly dropped a heavy bombshell in this fierce 'brainstorming' session.

According to a major report from Jin10 data, the CME 'Fed Watch' tool reveals the current market's probability assessment of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate direction. Surprisingly, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is as high as 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 15.5%. This significant gap reflects the market's mainstream expectations of the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy and provides key decision-making references for investors.

Looking further ahead to September, the market expectations show a new pattern. Data indicates that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September is 30%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut reaches 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is also 10%. This trend suggests that as time progresses, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts is gradually increasing.

Every interest rate decision made by the Federal Reserve is like a carefully placed move on the global financial chessboard, pulling the strings of the entire system. In this crucial battle in July, will it maintain interest rate stability to solidify the current economic situation, or will it follow some expectations to open the rate cut channel and release new economic vitality? How will September further unfold—will it continue to watch or increase the intensity of rate cuts?

Behind these suspenseful decisions lies the complex intertwining of global economic data, with careful weighing of multiple factors such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. Market participants are holding their breath, closely monitoring every move of the Federal Reserve, hoping to catch key clues from each speech and economic report.

Now, with the revelation of this latest data set, investors are eagerly adjusting their investment strategies based on the new probability expectations. From stocks to bonds, from gold to foreign exchange, various financial markets may stir new waves due to this expectation.

Are you also paying attention to the Federal Reserve's next major move?