In the contract market, the core of stable profit lies in establishing a replicable trading system. As a practitioner with years of experience in the industry, I will combine practical experience to break down a set of market-validated trading framework from variety selection, periodic judgment, capital management to mental training.
1. Variety Screening: Focus on Value Anchor Points
Trading Target Selection Iron Rule: Only Trade Leading Coins
80% of market liquidity is concentrated in mainstream coins like BTC/ETH, where the price discovery mechanism is mature, and candlestick patterns have more technical analysis value. Compared to the chaotic fluctuations of altcoins, the trend continuity of leading coins is stronger, effectively reducing the risk of 'needle explosion'. It is recommended to focus 90% of efforts on the top two market cap varieties, with the remaining 10% allocated to leading sectors when the overall trend is clear (such as DeFi, leading coins in public chain narratives).
2. Periodic Judgment: Four-Dimensional Spacetime Positioning Method
(1) Trend Recognition System
The 4-hour level long-short dividing line uses EMA60 as the core trend indicator: when the price continues to be pressured below the 4-hour EMA60, and rebounds touch that moving average band (can combine with MA30/MA60 moving average resonance), it is the short position batch layout interval; conversely, if the price holds above the 4-hour EMA60, and daily MA120 support appears below, it constitutes a long position entry signal. Pay attention to volume verification: a volume-reduced rebound testing resistance level is a short opportunity, while a volume-increased breakout of key moving averages requires a strategy adjustment.
(2) Space Anchor Point Setting
Short Position Layout: Entering in Batches at Same Level Resistance Zones
Example: In the 4-hour chart, if the price rebounds to the resistance zone formed by EMA60 (current 28500) and the previous high neck line (28800), you can short in 3 batches between 28500-28800, with each interval being 150 points.
Long Position Opportunities: Large Cycle Support Zone Needle
Daily MA200 (25000) forms a strong support zone with the previous low; if 'Single Needle Bottom + Bullish Engulfing' pattern appears, you can ambush in batches between 25000-25300.
3. Capital Management: Three Layers of Risk Control Protection Network
(1) Stop Loss System Design
Dynamic Stop Loss Anchor Points
Support Level Below Needle Minimum Point + 10-20 Points: If the support area of 22200 shows an instant needle at 22100, set stop loss at 22080 (20 points below the needle's minimum point)
Single Day Risk Control Red Line
Cumulative Stop Loss Reaches 15% of Total Principal (First Warning)/20% (Forced Stop), single trade stop loss not exceeding 10% of principal, ensuring that after 5 consecutive stop losses, 50% of principal is still retained.
(2) Position Management Model
Fixed Position Strategy
Use the same position for each trade (recommended 10%-15% of total funds), to avoid emotional position adjustments. For example, with a principal of 100,000, open 10x leverage each time, fixed opening 1BTC (corresponding to 10,000 USDT margin).
Batch Position Building Techniques
Initial position of 60%, with the remaining 40% added at key positions (such as moving average breakout pullback, second test of support), avoiding 'one-shot' operations.
4. Trade Execution: Discipline Over Technique
(1) Trend Following Principle
Main Melody Judgment
Determine the Major Trend Using Weekly MA60 Direction: If upward, focus on long positions, look for support during pullbacks; if downward, focus on short positions, short on resistance during rebounds.
Hotspot Chasing Timing
When BTC Volatility < 2% and Holds Above Daily MA60, switch to hot sectors, selecting 'Top 5 Coins with Volume 30%+ Stronger than the Market', set a 1:3 risk-reward ratio for chasing.
(2) Special Scenario Response
Market Crash Operation
When a waterfall drop at the 1-hour level occurs, immediately close all positions and wait for daily level 'Triple Bottom' or 'Morning Star' reversal patterns to appear, then start batching long positions from the support area (20% position each time when price drops 5%).
Weekend Trading Discipline
From Friday 18:00 to before Sunday 22:00, due to the closure of European and American trading sessions leading to decreased liquidity, only maintain existing moving stop losses, and do not open any new positions.
5. Mental Training: Anti-Human Nature Operation Guide
(1) The Art of Stop Loss and Take Profit
Profit Protection Stop Loss Rules
If the stop loss is not triggered on the day and the position has a floating profit of over 20%, the stop loss can be moved to the opening cost line; if the 4-hour K-line shows engulfing patterns or other trend reversal signals, take profit on 50% of the position in advance.
Profit and Loss Ratio Iron Rule
Each trade must meet a 1:3 potential risk-reward ratio (e.g., stop loss 50 points, target take profit 150 points), opportunities below this ratio must be resolutely abandoned.
(2) Trading Behavior Norms
Daily Self-Examination
Are you opening positions in varieties/cycles outside the plan?
Is the stop loss/position strictly executed according to the system?
Should trading be paused during emotional fluctuations?
Overnight Position Ban
All positions must be closed before 24:00 daily, to avoid the uncertainty impact of news after US stock market close.
Conclusion: Trading is the Art of Probability
Remember: the essence of stable profit is 'using controllable small losses to seek multiple large wins'. Please decisively close positions when the market shows the following signals:
4-Hour EMA60 and MA120 Death Cross with Increased Volume Decline
Net Outflow of Funds from Mainstream Coins Exceeds 500 Million USD for 3 Consecutive Days
24 Hours Before Major Events such as Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions
Always remember: surviving in the contract market is not about how much you have earned, but how long you can survive in the market. When you internalize the trading system into muscle memory, profit will become a natural outcome. Maintain respect, plan well, and leave the rest to probability.
