The cryptocurrency market is always sensitive to macroeconomic factors, geopolitical news, and blockchain-related technological events. In the week from June 23, 2025, to June 29, 2025, several important events may shape market trends.

Based on economic data, recent news, and market trends, this article will analyze potential factors influencing the prices of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other altcoins, while assessing their impacts.

1. Macroeconomic Indicators

1.1. Consumer Confidence Index

  • Announcement timing: Expected on Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

  • Importance: This index reflects American consumer sentiment towards the economy, directly affecting spending and investment. In March 2025, this index reached 50.8, indicating prolonged pessimism.

  • Potential impact:

    • Positive scenario: If the index rises above expectations (e.g., above 55), this could strengthen the USD and reduce the appeal of risky assets like crypto, putting short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins.

    • Negative scenario: If the index continues to decline (below 50), the market will increase expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the near future. This often supports crypto prices, especially Bitcoin, which is viewed as an alternative asset in a low-interest-rate environment.

  • Prediction: With the trend of a global economic recession forecasted in 2025, the likelihood of a decline in consumer confidence is high, which could drive price increases for BTC and ETH.

1.2. U.S. Labor Market Data

  • Announcement timing: The weekly unemployment claims report is expected on Wednesday, June 25, 2025 (as Thursday is a holiday in the U.S.).

  • Context: According to recent data, the number of layoffs in the U.S. in 2025 has increased by 80% compared to 2024, particularly in the technology and finance sectors. This raises concerns about the health of the labor market.

  • Potential impact:

    • Weak data: If the number of unemployment claims rises above forecasts (e.g., over 250,000 claims/week), this will reinforce expectations that the Fed will loosen monetary policy, facilitating a price increase for crypto.

    • Strong data: Conversely, if the labor market unexpectedly recovers, the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, putting downward pressure on crypto.

  • Prediction: With the trend of increasing layoffs, labor data may continue to be weak, supporting investor sentiment towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

1.3. Fed's Monetary Policy Commentary

  • Timing: There is no official FOMC meeting this week, but speeches or comments from Fed members (such as Chair Jerome Powell or governors) may appear unexpectedly.

  • Context: The market currently prices in a 96.7% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates at 4.25-4.5% in the July 2025 meeting. However, any signal regarding interest rate cuts or policy adjustments could cause significant volatility.

  • Potential impact:

    • Dovish signal: If the Fed hints at the possibility of cutting interest rates sooner than expected (due to economic recession or declining inflation), the crypto market will benefit significantly, especially altcoins that are sensitive to risk.

    • Hawkish signal: If the Fed emphasizes maintaining high interest rates to control inflation, crypto prices may decline as investors shift to safer assets like government bonds.

  • Prediction: With pressure from economic recession and a weak labor market, the Fed may signal a more dovish stance, creating opportunities for crypto recovery.

2. Geopolitical News

2.1. Israel-Iran Tensions

  • Context: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, continues to be a focal point. In May 2025, the price of Bitcoin dropped sharply to 99,000 USD as tensions escalated due to retaliatory attacks.

  • Potential impact:

    • Increased volatility: If there are further negative developments (such as military attacks or threats to close the Strait of Hormuz), oil prices will rise, leading to risk-averse sentiment. In the short term, this may put downward pressure on crypto.

    • Hedge against instability: However, in the medium and long term, Bitcoin is often seen as a safe asset during periods of geopolitical instability, similar to gold. If the conflict persists, capital may flow into BTC.

  • Prediction: Given the current situation, the likelihood of escalating conflict is low but cannot be ruled out. Crypto investors should closely monitor news from this region, especially over the weekend.

2.2. Global Political Events

  • Context: Elections or policy changes in major economies (such as the EU, China, or Japan) can indirectly affect global financial markets, including crypto.

  • Potential impact:

    • Monetary policy in China: If China announces additional economic stimulus packages this week, this could support the risky asset market, including crypto.

    • Political instability in the EU: With local elections in some EU countries, any unexpected results (such as the rise of far-right parties) could weaken the EUR, indirectly pushing investors towards crypto.

  • Prediction: Global political events may create short-term volatility, but the direct impact on crypto will depend on the scale and nature of the news.

3. Crypto Industry Events

3.1. Legal Regulation Updates

  • Context: In 2025, regulatory agencies worldwide, particularly the SEC (U.S.) and ESMA (EU), are intensifying scrutiny of the crypto market. This week, there may be announcements related to stablecoin regulations or crypto ETFs.

  • Potential impact:

    • Positive: If the SEC approves additional altcoin ETFs (such as Solana or Cardano ETFs), this will attract institutional capital, driving altcoin prices up significantly.

    • Negative: Conversely, if there is a tightening of regulations (such as banning the trading of certain tokens), the market could decline sharply, especially for smaller projects.

  • Prediction: With the positive trend from the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, the likelihood of positive news regarding regulations is high, supporting market sentiment.

3.2. Blockchain Technology Events

  • Context: Major projects like Ethereum, Solana, or Polkadot often announce network upgrades (hard forks, mainnet launches) or developer conferences in mid-year.

  • Potential impact:

    • Ethereum upgrade: If there is an announcement regarding the next upgrade roadmap (such as complete sharding), the price of ETH may rise due to expectations of improved network performance.

    • Blockchain conference: Events such as Consensus 2025 or Devcon may take place this week, attracting community attention and pushing related token prices up.

  • Prediction: Some major projects may announce positive updates, creating localized price increases for related tokens.

4.1. Market Sentiment

  • Context: After Bitcoin peaked at 103,000 USD in March 2025, the market is currently in a correction phase, with BTC trading around 99,000-101,000 USD. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 60, indicating a neutral sentiment leaning towards greed.

  • Potential impact:

    • If economic or geopolitical events create risk-averse sentiment, the market may correct further, with BTC dropping to the 95,000 USD support level.

    • Conversely, if there is positive news (such as interest rate cuts or ETF approvals), BTC could break out to 105,000 USD, dragging altcoins up significantly.

  • Prediction: With the current sentiment, the market is likely to remain volatile within a narrow range, awaiting catalysts from news.

4.2. Whale Activity

  • Context: On-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated BTC and ETH in June 2025, especially as prices corrected to around 99,000 USD.

  • Potential impact: If whales continue to buy, this will create strong demand, pushing prices up. Conversely, if whales sell, the market may face downward pressure.

  • Prediction: The accumulation trend of whales is a positive signal, supporting BTC prices in the short term.

5. Recommendations for investors:

  • Short-term: Closely monitor economic (June 24-25, 2025) and geopolitical news. If BTC holds the 99,000 USD support level, investors may consider buying into potential altcoins like ETH, SOL, or ADA.

  • Long-term: With the trend of whale accumulation and expectations of monetary policy easing, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain safe choices for investment portfolios.

The crypto market this week promises to be highly volatile, requiring investors to be sharp and manage risks closely. Stay updated on the news to make timely decisions.

Note: This article is for reference only. Investors should conduct their own research and consider risks before making decisions.