The US has definitely carried out strikes, but that’s old news now. Looking at tanker and bulk carrier traffic in the region, the media is hyping up a mass exodus due to fears of a blockade, but I’m actually seeing normal movement—maybe a slight uptick in outbound ships, but nothing dramatic 🤷‍♂️.

Below, you’ll find a map of US bases in the area; while not 100% accurate since things change constantly, it’s clear the US has surrounded the region and has been preparing for instability for decades, especially along the southern coast. As for a blockade, it’s possible, but keep in mind Iran trades there too—can they really pull it off?

After the US strike on Iran, I see three possible outcomes:

1. Iran agrees to terms in secret talks; public attacks taper off and the peak has passed—most likely.

2. Iran surrenders openly—unlikely.

3. Iran refuses to negotiate; the conflict drags on for months or years, and the US gets pulled in deeper.

Which scenario do you think is most likely?