Impact of US-Iran War on Markets
The economic impact of war between the United States and Iran is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Energy Market: The Middle East is the world's largest oil-producing region, and Iran is a major oil-exporting country. War would affect oil supply in the Middle East, leading to increased panic in the oil market and a significant rise in oil prices. Historical data shows that after the outbreak of the Iraq War in 2003, international oil prices rose by nearly 50% within just a few months. The surge in oil prices would increase production costs for transportation, chemical, and other companies, thereby driving up prices, increasing consumer living costs, and suppressing economic growth.
Financial Market: Global financial markets would experience turbulence. In the stock market, investor risk aversion would increase, leading many to sell stocks and buy safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds, resulting in a decline in the stock market and increased difficulty for companies to obtain financing. At the same time, the foreign exchange market would also be affected, with the US dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, experiencing fluctuations in its exchange rate due to changes in the situation. Currencies of emerging market countries may face depreciation pressure, increasing the foreign debt burden for these countries.
Trade Market: The region of conflict between Israel and Iran is an important trade route connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. War between the US and Iran could hinder trade in the region, with port closures and transportation disruptions affecting the normal operation of global supply chains. Additionally, trade protectionism may rise, as countries take measures to safeguard their energy security and economic interests, potentially leading to trade restrictions that undermine the global free trade order and increase trade costs for companies, resulting in a decline in global trade volume.
Industrial Landscape: Some industries related to national defense and energy security may see development opportunities, with military enterprises potentially receiving more orders. The new energy industry may also gain more attention and investment due to concerns about traditional energy. At the same time, this conflict may prompt countries to reevaluate their energy strategies and economic structures, accelerating the pace of industrial upgrading and transformation.