The American airstrikes targeting Natanz, Isfahan, and the fortified Fordow facility in Iran represent a dramatic escalation in the region's tensions.
This could reshape the geopolitical landscape of West Asia, with wide-ranging consequences for diplomacy, regional stability, global oil markets, and India's energy security.
What Are Iran's Options Now?
Iran has several possible responses, each fraught with risk:
Diplomatic De-escalation
Iran could return to negotiations, potentially under the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the Trump administration previously abandoned. However, this route faces resistance from Iran's hardliners, who view the U.S. strikes as a humiliation and a betrayal of diplomacy. Tehran could also withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's most potent non-military leverage is the Strait of Hormuz-a narrow maritime chokepoint through which over 20 million barrels of oil and a large volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass daily. Iranian parliament has backed the proposal to close the strait while the final decision is yet to be made by Iran's top security body. The closure of Hormuz could trigger an oil price surge and widespread economic ripple effects.
But this move would also harm Iran. Its own oil exports pass through Hormuz, and a closure would likely provoke military responses from Gulf Arab states and lead to further Western sanctions. Still, the threat alone could cause panic in energy markets.
Military Counterstrike
A more dangerous path is retaliation. Iran's military and political leadership have warned of striking U.S. military bases and naval assets in the region. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, stated ominously: "It is now our turn."
Iran possesses short-range ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets that could be used in asymmetric attacks. The U.S., anticipating a reaction, has dispersed its forces and bolstered regional air defenses.
What's at Stake for the U.S.?
Trump's strike risks dragging the U.S. into a broader regional conflict. His administration argues that the action was necessary due to stalled diplomacy and Iran's refusal to halt nuclear activities. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has called the strikes a "heinous crime," urging the United Nations to condemn what it says is a breach of international law.
Trump has hinted that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself could be a future target if Iran retaliates. This statement, experts warn, blurs red lines and could set the stage for full-scale war.
How Does This Affect Global Oil and India?
The Strait of Hormuz, situated between Oman and Iran, links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It is considered the world's most critical oil chokepoint due to the vast quantities of oil that pass through it. It is vital to global energy security. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), over one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows through this narrow passage. A disruption would spike shipping costs, insurance premiums, and energy prices worldwide.
India, which imports over 80% of its crude oil, relies significantly on Middle Eastern supplies. While New Delhi diversifies with imports from Russia, the U.S., and Africa, the real challenge lies in managing volatile prices rather than shortages.
In 2024, 69% of oil flowing through Hormuz went to Asian markets-primarily China, India, Japan, and South Korea. A crisis in the Gulf will likely inflate India's import bills, worsen inflation, and slow down the economy.
What Could Iran's Long Game Look Like?
Iran may choose to delay its retaliation. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi hinted at a measured, calculated response when he warned of "everlasting consequences." Tehran has a history of asymmetrical warfare and could use proxies or cyber capabilities to strike U.S. assets over time, avoiding immediate escalation while exacting a cost. With diplomacy stalled and military engagement initiated, Iran's next move could shape not just regional stability but also the global economy.