The price of Bitcoin fell by 4.27% in 24 hours due to geopolitical shocks, leveraged liquidations, and technical failures below the key support level.
1. The geopolitical panic resulting from tensions between the United States and Iran has led to a series of liquidations exceeding one billion dollars.
2. The technical breakdown below the $102,000 level accelerated selling pressure.
3. The shift in sentiment to 'Neutral' (Fear and Greed Index 40) has led to a growing risk appetite.
●▪︎ In-depth analysis of the reasons for the decline
1. Main catalyst: escalation of the US-Iran conflict
The United States confirmed strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 (US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites were confirmed), while the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passage. This led to:
- Liquidations of $1.02 billion within 24 hours (87% buying trades) as the Bitcoin price fell below $100,000.
- Rising oil prices (+1% during the day) which raised concerns about inflation/stagflation.
- Historical precedent: Similar tensions in the Middle East in 2020 saw Bitcoin's price drop by 11% over 48 hours.
2. Technical context: price drop below critical levels.
- Bitcoin breaking several support levels:
- Pivot point at $102,415 (now a resistance level).
- Fibonacci level 23.6% at $109,117 from the June swing high.
- A negative crossover has formed (the 10-day exponential moving average of $104,702 is below the 50-day exponential moving average of $103,129).
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI(7)) at 28.96 indicates short-term oversold conditions, but the MACD (-708) indicates strong bearish momentum.
3. Market dynamics: a reflection in sentiment
The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 73 (Greed) to 40 (Neutral) over 30 days.
Bitcoin's dominance rose to 64.96% as altcoin losses increased (Altcoin Season Index: 18/100)
Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $358 million on June 21.