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Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the market: the Ethereum spot ETF maintains a continuous and rapid net inflow, but the price has not risen, basically oscillating around 2500 from May to now. Many people might not understand the logic behind this, so I will explain it thoroughly today.
Let's start with the basics. What is an ETF?
An ETF is actually a type of open-end fund that can be bought and sold on an exchange, similar to buying stocks. For example, if you buy an ETH ETF, it is equivalent to indirectly holding a share of Ethereum. The price will fluctuate in accordance with the spot price of Ethereum. In short, it is a bridge that allows you to allocate crypto assets in the traditional market.
However, there is a common misunderstanding here—many people think that the net inflow of ETFs represents institutional buying. This is actually incorrect; ETFs can be participated in by everyone, including retail investors, institutions, market makers, arbitrageurs, and so on. Essentially, it is an investment channel, not exclusively for institutions.
You can imagine, for example, that if BlackRock issues an ETH ETF, they have already prepared a large amount of Ethereum spot. These assets are not bought at the moment but were laid out earlier. Then, whether you or I, as retail investors, or some hedge funds, as long as we buy this ETF share, the overall data of the ETF will show a net inflow.
However, this does not mean that the money is bought by institutions. If the ETF buying wave is driven by retail investors, its positive impact on price is actually very limited. This is because retail investors tend to enter quickly and exit quickly, heavily influenced by emotions, and do not possess the characteristic of 'stable positive accumulation'. Institutions, on the other hand, build positions slowly and exit slowly, with larger and more sustained buying volumes.
So the data you see is likely driven by retail funds; when the main players see liquidity coming in, they naturally want to reap profits, and prices will not be pulled up too obviously.
So the data you see is likely driven by retail funds; when the main players see liquidity coming in, they naturally want to reap profits, and prices will not be pulled up too obviously.
Some institutions even play a reverse operation trick when shipping: they buy heavily in the spot market and use larger short positions in the futures market to create the illusion that 'institutions are buying', confusing retail investors into entering and taking the bag. You think they have entered the market, but in fact, they are just switching pockets to fill them with retail investors.
Even if there really is a large inflow of funds into the ETF, it cannot be directly equated to 'this is what was bought now'. Why? Because the ETF's holding data reflects the quantity transferred from other addresses, not the real-time purchases in the market.
For example, if I were BlackRock, I would slowly buy 10,000 Ethereum every day when the price was low in April, accumulating 600,000 in two months. Then on a certain day in June, I would transfer these 600,000 to the official custody address of the ETF, and you would see a 'single-day huge purchase' data on-chain. But in reality, this money was already invested at a low price.
As a result, when retail investors see such announcements of large inflows, they will have the illusion that 'someone is entering the market in large numbers', prompting them to buy at the bottom, but when they enter, they often become the ones being harvested.
If you observe carefully, you will find that the days of ETF explosion often coincide with the price being at a high level and either consolidating or about to reverse. What you think is the bottom might actually be the top.
This practice of 'secretly laying out first, then disclosing centrally' has happened in the past as well. For example, during the market wave in November 2024, there were similar signs—suddenly a huge purchase volume, followed closely by a significant price drop, roughly around 15%.
Therefore, we cannot interpret ETF data naively as positive. What is behind it may be a left hand transferring to the right hand, or deceptive reverse selling.
In addition, there is often an overlooked factor: many retail investors hold a lot of altcoins, and to 'hedge risks', they choose to short Ethereum in the futures market, hoping for a drop in Ethereum to hedge the risk exposure of their altcoins.
But the actual result is that Ethereum did not drop significantly as they expected; instead, it maintained a relatively strong structure. Thus, you will see a bunch of people shorting ETH, but they end up not making much money, while altcoins plummet, and losses are further magnified. This hedging method has become a risk amplifying discrepancy.
To summarize:
First, the misconception that most people equate ETF net inflow with institutional buying is common. In reality, retail funds can also support ETF data.
Second, institutions often take off-exchange trading or delayed transfer strategies to avoid exposing their accumulation intentions; this time difference of 'building a position first and then disclosing' can easily mislead retail investors.
Third, don't get excited and rush in just because you see a large increase in ETF holdings one day; it might just be that institutions are moving goods they bought months ago to the ETF address.
Fourth, some seemingly 'positive' net inflows may actually be strategies used by institutions for reverse hedging, or even bait to attract buying funds.
Fifth, there are many retail investors using the strategy of 'shorting ETH to hedge altcoins' in the market, and the ETH price did not drop significantly, further exacerbating their losses.
From these perspectives, the fact that the net inflow of Ethereum ETFs does not lead to price increases is actually a very reasonable phenomenon. This is precisely a 'signal confusion period'; you cannot just look at the surface.#加密市场回调 #
